ORIX Corporation

TSE:8591 Stock Report

Market Cap: JP¥6.7t

ORIX Future Growth

Future criteria checks 0/6

ORIX's earnings are forecast to decline at 7.6% per annum while its annual revenue is expected to grow at 4.2% per year. EPS is expected to decline by 3.3% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 10.8% in 3 years.

Key information

-7.6%

Earnings growth rate

-3.26%

EPS growth rate

Diversified Financial earnings growth2.1%
Revenue growth rate4.2%
Future return on equity10.79%
Analyst coverage

Good

Last updated19 Aug 2026

Recent future growth updates

Analysis Article • Jun 26

Revenue Beat: ORIX Corporation Beat Analyst Estimates By 7.4%

ORIX Corporation ( TSE:8591 ) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 2.9% to...
Analysis Article • Feb 13

Earnings Beat: ORIX Corporation Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models

A week ago, ORIX Corporation ( TSE:8591 ) came out with a strong set of third-quarter numbers that could potentially...

Recent updates

Narrative Update • Aug 19

8591: Future Capital Returns And Asset Ambitions Will Likely Remain In Delicate Balance

Analysts have increased their fair value estimate for ORIX from ¥5,300 to ¥6,100, citing updated assumptions about discount rates, revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E expectations. What's in the News for ORIX ORIX has scheduled a board meeting for August 6, 2026 to consider a revision of its dividend policy for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2027.
Narrative Update • Aug 05

8591: Buybacks And Dividend Policy Will Support A Balanced Outlook

Analysts have lifted their price target on ORIX from about ¥6,519 to roughly ¥6,679, reflecting updated assumptions for slightly higher revenue growth, a modestly stronger profit margin, and a small adjustment to the projected future P/E multiple. What's in the News for ORIX ORIX completed a share repurchase tranche between May 11, 2026 and June 30, 2026, buying 6,350,700 shares, or 0.58% of shares, for ¥39,647.19 million under the buyback announced on May 11, 2026.
Narrative Update • Jul 22

8591: Share Repurchases And Rising Dividends Will Support A Balanced Outlook

Analysts have raised their fair value estimate for ORIX from about ¥6,328 to approximately ¥6,519, reflecting updated assumptions related to the company’s discount rate and expected price-to-earnings ratio. What’s in the News for ORIX ORIX completed a share repurchase tranche between May 11, 2026 and June 30, 2026, buying 6,350,700 shares, or 0.58% of shares, for ¥39,647.19 million under the buyback announced on May 11, 2026.
Narrative Update • Jul 08

8591: Future Asset Management Ambitions Will Likely Outrun Realistic Earnings Power

Analysts have raised their price target on ORIX from ¥4,000 to ¥5,300, citing updated assumptions for discount rates, revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E multiples that collectively support a higher valuation framework. What’s in the News for ORIX ORIX set a long term goal to become a global asset manager, with a target of 15% ROE and ¥1t in net income by 2035, supported by portfolio optimization, regional synergies, and a larger focus on fee based and alternative investments.
Analysis Article • Jun 26

Revenue Beat: ORIX Corporation Beat Analyst Estimates By 7.4%

ORIX Corporation ( TSE:8591 ) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 2.9% to...
Narrative Update • Jun 24

8591: Leadership Changes And Shareholder Returns Will Guide A Balanced Future Outlook

Analysts have left their fair value estimate for ORIX broadly unchanged at around ¥6,328 per share. They cited only minor adjustments to the discount rate, long term revenue growth, profit margin assumptions, and future P/E expectations rather than any major shift in the fundamental outlook.
Narrative Update • Jun 04

8591: Dividends And Share Repurchases Will Shape A Measured Future Outlook

Analysts now set a higher fair value price target for ORIX at approximately ¥6,328, up from about ¥5,534, citing updated assumptions for the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E. What's in the News Board meeting on May 11, 2026 to consider and recommend a final dividend for the year ended March 31, 2026.
Narrative Update • May 15

8591: Share Repurchases And Organizational Reforms Will Support Measured Future Outlook

Analysts have raised their price target on ORIX to ¥5,534 from ¥5,438, citing updated assumptions for fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E estimates. What's in the News Board meeting scheduled for May 11, 2026 to consider and recommend a final dividend for the financial year ended March 31, 2026 (Key Developments).
Narrative Update • Apr 28

8591: Share Buybacks And Organizational Reforms Will Support Balanced Future Outlook

Analysts have maintained their fair value estimate for ORIX at ¥5,437.78 per share. They explain that only minor adjustments to assumptions such as the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E do not justify a change to the overall price target.
Narrative Update • Apr 10

8591: Share Buybacks And Organizational Reforms Will Support Higher Future Valuation

Analysts have modestly lifted the price target on ORIX to ¥5,438 from ¥5,349, reflecting small adjustments to fair value estimates, the discount rate, projected revenue growth, profit margin expectations, and assumed future P/E levels. What's in the News ORIX reported progress on its share buyback, repurchasing 8,589,400 shares for ¥42,729.92 million between January 1 and February 27, 2026.
Narrative Update • Mar 26

8591: Ongoing Share Buybacks And Reorganization Will Support A Higher Fair Value

Analysts have nudged their price target for ORIX higher from about ¥5,271 to roughly ¥5,349. This reflects updated assumptions around discount rates, revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E levels.
Narrative Update • Mar 12

8591: Share Buybacks And Reorganization Will Support A Steady Fair Value Outlook

Analysts have lifted their price target on ORIX to about ¥5,271 from roughly ¥5,176, citing updated assumptions that include a higher revenue growth outlook, a slightly adjusted discount rate, a modestly lower profit margin and a similar future P/E profile. What's in the News ORIX reported progress on its share repurchase program announced on May 12, 2025, completing the buyback of 38,206,600 shares, representing 3.4% of shares, for ¥149,999.98 million as of February 27, 2026 (company announcement).
New Narrative • Mar 05

Capital Gains Dependence And Project Risks Will Limit Long Term Earnings Potential

Catalysts About ORIX ORIX is a diversified financial group that operates across finance, leasing, investment, real estate, infrastructure and insurance globally. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?
Narrative Update • Feb 26

8591: Buybacks And New Leadership Will Support Fairly Valued Outlook

Analysts have lifted their price target on ORIX from around ¥4,853 to about ¥5,176, citing model updates that reflect the latest fair value estimate, discount rate, profit margin outlook, and forward P/E assumptions. What's in the News ORIX completed a share repurchase program announced on May 12, 2025, buying a total of 29,617,200 shares, representing 2.63% of shares for ¥107,270.06 million, including 8,557,600 shares between October 1, 2025 and December 31, 2025 that accounted for 0.77% of shares for ¥35,590.54 million (Key Developments).
New Narrative • Feb 18

Energy Transition And Infrastructure Exposure Will Support A Stronger Long Term Outlook

Catalysts About ORIX ORIX is a diversified financial services group with operations spanning finance, leasing, real assets, private equity, infrastructure, insurance and banking across Japan and global markets. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?
Analysis Article • Feb 13

Earnings Beat: ORIX Corporation Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models

A week ago, ORIX Corporation ( TSE:8591 ) came out with a strong set of third-quarter numbers that could potentially...
Narrative Update • Feb 11

8591: Share Repurchases And Lower Discount Rate Will Mask Overvaluation

Analysts have raised their price target on ORIX to ¥4,853 from ¥4,769, reflecting updated assumptions around a slightly lower discount rate, modestly different revenue growth expectations, and a marginally revised future P/E and profit margin profile. What's in the News ORIX completed a share repurchase program announced on May 12, 2025, buying a total of 29,617,200 shares, or 2.63% of shares, for ¥107,270.06 million, including 8,557,600 shares, or 0.77%, repurchased between October 1 and December 31, 2025 (company filing).
Narrative Update • Jan 27

8591: Capital Returns And New Leadership Will Support Measured Outlook

Analysts have raised their fair value estimate for ORIX from ¥4,640 to about ¥4,769. This change reflects updated views on a slightly lower discount rate, modestly adjusted revenue growth and profit margin assumptions, and a higher future P/E multiple.
Narrative Update • Jan 13

8591: Capital Returns And Leadership Transition Will Support Measured Long Term Outlook

Analysts have lifted their price target on ORIX from ¥4,565 to ¥4,640, citing updated assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E, which refine their fair value outlook. What's in the News ORIX plans to appoint Hidetake Takahashi as Chief Executive Officer, replacing Makoto Inoue from January 1, 2026, with additional responsibility for the Digital Innovation Unit and the Corporate Strategy and Management Unit (Key Developments).
Analysis Article • Jan 07

ORIX (TSE:8591) Has Announced A Dividend Of ¥59.91

ORIX Corporation's ( TSE:8591 ) investors are due to receive a payment of ¥59.91 per share on 4th of June. The payment...
Analysis Article • Dec 24

ORIX (TSE:8591) Has Announced A Dividend Of ¥59.91

ORIX Corporation ( TSE:8591 ) will pay a dividend of ¥59.91 on the 4th of June. This takes the annual payment to 2.6...
Narrative Update • Dec 17

8591: Expanded Capital Returns And Leadership Transition Will Support Steady Future Outlook

Analysts have modestly raised their price target on ORIX, lifting fair value from ¥4,506.25 to ¥4,565.00, as incremental improvements in forecast discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P E multiples support a slightly more optimistic outlook. What’s in the News The board has appointed Hidetake Takahashi as Chief Executive Officer, effective January 1, 2026, succeeding Makoto Inoue and adding responsibility for the Digital Innovation and Corporate Strategy and Management units (company announcement).
Analysis Article • Dec 10

ORIX (TSE:8591) Is Due To Pay A Dividend Of ¥59.91

ORIX Corporation ( TSE:8591 ) has announced that it will pay a dividend of ¥59.91 per share on the 4th of June. This...
Narrative Update • Dec 03

8591: Expanded Buybacks And Dividend Policy Will Support Balanced Future Outlook

Analysts have raised their price target on ORIX from ¥4,227.50 to ¥4,506.25, citing slightly higher expected revenue growth, modestly better profit margins, and a marginally richer future P/E multiple as key drivers of the upward revision. What's in the News Raised consolidated net income guidance for fiscal year ending March 31, 2026 to JPY 440,000 million from JPY 380,000 million, reflecting strong first half performance and steady outlook across business segments (company guidance).
Narrative Update • Nov 19

8591: Share Repurchase Plan And Dividend Moves Will Support Measured Outlook

Analysts have raised their price target for ORIX, increasing the estimated fair value from ¥4,166 to ¥4,227. The adjustment is based on updated outlooks for discount rates, revenue growth, and profitability metrics.
Analysis Article • Nov 14

Revenue Beat: ORIX Corporation Beat Analyst Estimates By 9.0%

Investors in ORIX Corporation ( TSE:8591 ) had a good week, as its shares rose 5.5% to close at JP¥4,039 following the...
Analysis Article • Sep 26

ORIX (TSE:8591) Is Due To Pay A Dividend Of ¥60.00

The board of ORIX Corporation ( TSE:8591 ) has announced that it will pay a dividend on the 9th of December, with...
Narrative Update • Sep 20

Capital Recycling And Renewable Energy Investments Will Drive Sustainable Futures

The modest increase in ORIX’s consensus price target to ¥4166 is primarily driven by a slightly higher Future P/E ratio, reflecting improved earnings expectations. What's in the News Completed share buyback of 7,528,100 shares (0.66%) for ¥22,932.88 million.
Narrative Update • Sep 05

Capital Recycling And Renewable Energy Investments Will Drive Sustainable Futures

As both the discount rate and future P/E for ORIX remained virtually unchanged, reflecting stable market assumptions, the consensus analyst price target was also unchanged at ¥4008. What's in the News Completed repurchase of 7,528,100 shares (0.66%) for ¥22,932.88 million under buyback announced May 12, 2025.
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New Narrative • Nov 10

Expanding Horizons In Asset Management And Renewable Energy Fuels Robust Growth

ORIX's strategy to increase assets and diversify revenue in the U.S. aims to capitalize on future economic upturns despite geopolitical uncertainties.

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

TSE:8591 - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (JPY Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
3/31/20293,850,409544,260N/AN/A6
3/31/20283,578,104503,400N/AN/A6
3/31/20273,426,133898,849N/AN/A3
6/30/20263,460,486623,130N/AN/AN/A
3/31/20263,330,831447,16937,1321,369,567N/A
12/31/20253,129,247469,493N/AN/AN/A
9/30/20253,035,685439,7092,1371,308,166N/A
6/30/20252,913,655365,323N/AN/AN/A
3/31/20252,874,821351,595-57,4791,300,193N/A
12/31/20242,925,089398,697N/AN/AN/A
9/30/20242,858,038400,95913,7241,252,412N/A
6/30/20242,845,702369,894N/AN/AN/A
3/31/20242,814,361346,12542,5281,243,402N/A
12/31/20232,706,896297,6256,6231,260,050N/A
9/30/20232,658,799296,130-18,5471,241,216N/A
6/30/20232,682,644291,382-36,1501,141,734N/A
3/31/20232,663,659290,340-166,986913,088N/A
12/31/20222,647,096312,714-107,517917,465N/A
9/30/20222,643,647287,763-182,769762,999N/A
6/30/20222,569,365308,843-104,625847,952N/A
3/31/20222,508,043317,376186,0741,103,370N/A
12/31/20212,495,127261,710210,4791,108,248N/A
9/30/20212,449,504245,224315,2631,185,915N/A
6/30/20212,363,880207,552356,9891,144,069N/A
3/31/20212,292,708192,384341,7231,102,414N/A
12/31/20202,228,238200,396315,2131,081,472N/A
9/30/20202,229,622237,392155,4241,029,388N/A
6/30/20202,269,521283,538115,0481,045,848N/A
3/31/20202,280,329302,700N/A1,042,466N/A
12/31/20192,352,583331,857N/A926,757N/A
9/30/20192,298,599327,845N/A846,987N/A
6/30/20192,370,791313,008N/A669,049N/A
3/31/20192,426,259323,745N/A587,678N/A
12/31/20182,458,969292,951N/A599,795N/A
9/30/20182,607,686302,215N/A623,770N/A
6/30/20182,673,995303,370N/A577,168N/A
3/31/20182,862,246313,135N/A568,791N/A
12/31/20172,947,614312,512N/A491,526N/A
9/30/20172,975,180297,059N/A471,548N/A
6/30/20172,882,833286,182N/A554,723N/A
3/31/20172,678,596273,239N/A583,800N/A
12/31/20162,497,234261,923N/A596,332N/A
9/30/20162,419,481241,021N/A622,945N/A
6/30/20162,350,590255,428N/A598,108N/A
3/31/20162,368,594260,169N/A510,562N/A
12/31/20152,397,973264,907N/A447,781N/A
9/30/20152,387,492254,947N/A376,791N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: 8591's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-7.6% per year).

Earnings vs Market: 8591's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-7.6% per year).

High Growth Earnings: 8591's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: 8591's revenue (4.2% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the JP market (6.1% per year).

High Growth Revenue: 8591's revenue (4.2% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: 8591's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (10.8%).

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/08/24 08:07
End of Day Share Price 2026/08/24 00:00
Earnings2026/06/30
Annual Earnings2026/03/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

ORIX Corporation is covered by 19 analysts. 7 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Azuma OhnoBarclays
Natsumu TsujinoBofA Global Research
Koichi NiwaCitigroup Inc