ORIX Corporation

TSE:8591 Stock Report

Market Cap: JP¥3.8t

ORIX Valuation

Is 8591 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 8591 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 8591 (¥3376) is trading below our estimate of fair value (¥7188.37)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 8591 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 8591?

Key metric: As 8591 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 8591. This is calculated by dividing 8591's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 8591's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio9.6x
EarningsJP¥400.97b
Market CapJP¥3.80t

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 8591's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 8591 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average26.6x
8421 Shinkin Central Bank
55.3xn/aJP¥1.9t
8593 Mitsubishi HC Capital
11x8.0%JP¥1.5t
8604 Nomura Holdings
9.7x0.6%JP¥2.7t
8697 Japan Exchange Group
30.5x2.1%JP¥1.9t
8591 ORIX
9.6x5.7%JP¥3.8t

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 8591 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.6x) compared to the peer average (26.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 8591's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the JP Diversified Financial Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
8301 Bank of Japan
0.01xn/aUS$174.53m
No more companies available in this PE range
8591 9.6xIndustry Avg. 13.5xNo. of Companies5PE01020304050+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 8591 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.6x) compared to the JP Diversified Financial industry average (13.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 8591's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

8591 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio9.6x
Fair PE Ratio18x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 8591 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 8591 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentJP¥3,376.00
JP¥4,008.89
+18.7%
8.8%JP¥4,500.00JP¥3,500.00n/a9
Nov ’25JP¥3,236.00
JP¥4,020.67
+24.2%
8.4%JP¥4,500.00JP¥3,600.00n/a9
Oct ’25JP¥3,363.00
JP¥4,020.67
+19.6%
8.4%JP¥4,500.00JP¥3,600.00n/a9
Sep ’25JP¥3,644.00
JP¥4,006.25
+9.9%
7.9%JP¥4,500.00JP¥3,600.00n/a8
Aug ’25JP¥3,466.00
JP¥3,953.75
+14.1%
7.0%JP¥4,500.00JP¥3,600.00n/a8
Jul ’25JP¥3,574.00
JP¥3,896.25
+9.0%
9.4%JP¥4,500.00JP¥3,200.00n/a8
Jun ’25JP¥3,419.00
JP¥3,762.50
+10.0%
11.3%JP¥4,500.00JP¥3,200.00n/a8
May ’25JP¥3,202.00
JP¥3,557.50
+11.1%
7.4%JP¥3,980.00JP¥3,200.00n/a8
Apr ’25JP¥3,160.00
JP¥3,395.56
+7.5%
8.7%JP¥3,800.00JP¥2,840.00n/a9
Mar ’25JP¥3,167.00
JP¥3,379.00
+6.7%
8.4%JP¥3,800.00JP¥2,840.00n/a10
Feb ’25JP¥2,816.50
JP¥3,208.00
+13.9%
9.3%JP¥3,600.00JP¥2,700.00n/a10
Jan ’25JP¥2,656.00
JP¥3,153.00
+18.7%
10.1%JP¥3,600.00JP¥2,700.00n/a10
Dec ’24JP¥2,714.50
JP¥3,125.45
+15.1%
8.5%JP¥3,600.00JP¥2,700.00n/a11
Nov ’24JP¥2,806.00
JP¥3,136.00
+11.8%
8.8%JP¥3,600.00JP¥2,700.00JP¥3,236.0010
Oct ’24JP¥2,793.00
JP¥3,058.89
+9.5%
8.1%JP¥3,420.00JP¥2,700.00JP¥3,363.009
Sep ’24JP¥2,751.50
JP¥3,031.25
+10.2%
9.2%JP¥3,420.00JP¥2,700.00JP¥3,644.008
Aug ’24JP¥2,742.50
JP¥2,931.25
+6.9%
9.0%JP¥3,420.00JP¥2,700.00JP¥3,466.008
Jul ’24JP¥2,612.50
JP¥2,893.75
+10.8%
10.8%JP¥3,420.00JP¥2,400.00JP¥3,574.008
Jun ’24JP¥2,383.50
JP¥2,842.50
+19.3%
8.6%JP¥3,300.00JP¥2,400.00JP¥3,419.008
May ’24JP¥2,328.50
JP¥2,827.00
+21.4%
8.5%JP¥3,300.00JP¥2,400.00JP¥3,202.0010
Apr ’24JP¥2,176.50
JP¥2,827.00
+29.9%
8.5%JP¥3,300.00JP¥2,400.00JP¥3,160.0010
Mar ’24JP¥2,445.00
JP¥2,821.00
+15.4%
8.6%JP¥3,300.00JP¥2,400.00JP¥3,167.0010
Feb ’24JP¥2,267.50
JP¥2,716.00
+19.8%
8.0%JP¥3,000.00JP¥2,400.00JP¥2,816.5010
Jan ’24JP¥2,118.50
JP¥2,727.50
+28.7%
8.7%JP¥3,100.00JP¥2,400.00JP¥2,656.0012
Dec ’23JP¥2,215.00
JP¥2,744.17
+23.9%
8.0%JP¥3,100.00JP¥2,400.00JP¥2,714.5012
Nov ’23JP¥2,173.00
JP¥2,795.83
+28.7%
7.9%JP¥3,100.00JP¥2,400.00JP¥2,806.0012

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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