Nomura Holdings, Inc.

TSE:8604 Stock Report

Market Cap: JP¥2.7t

Nomura Holdings Valuation

Is 8604 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 8604 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 8604 (¥922.3) is trading below our estimate of fair value (¥1462.8)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 8604 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 8604?

Key metric: As 8604 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 8604. This is calculated by dividing 8604's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 8604's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio9.9x
EarningsJP¥274.63b
Market CapJP¥2.73t

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 8604's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 8604 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average16x
8601 Daiwa Securities Group
9.7x1.7%JP¥1.4t
8473 SBI Holdings
11.7x11.3%JP¥1.1t
2127 Nihon M&A Center Holdings
18.4x10.2%JP¥198.3b
8628 Matsui Securities
24.3x12.7%JP¥214.7b
8604 Nomura Holdings
9.9x0.6%JP¥2.7t

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 8604 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.9x) compared to the peer average (16.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 8604's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the JP Capital Markets Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
7176 Simplex Financial Holdings
1.3xn/aUS$59.77m
No more companies available in this PE range
8604 9.9xIndustry Avg. 14.3xNo. of Companies7PE0816243240+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 8604 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.9x) compared to the JP Capital Markets industry average (14.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 8604's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

8604 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio9.9x
Fair PE Ratio16.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 8604 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 8604 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentJP¥922.30
JP¥983.75
+6.7%
15.6%JP¥1,200.00JP¥700.00n/a8
Nov ’25JP¥777.60
JP¥930.00
+19.6%
13.1%JP¥1,150.00JP¥700.00n/a8
Oct ’25JP¥770.00
JP¥913.33
+18.6%
11.4%JP¥1,000.00JP¥700.00n/a6
Sep ’25JP¥848.30
JP¥946.67
+11.6%
9.8%JP¥1,090.00JP¥800.00n/a6
Aug ’25JP¥904.40
JP¥944.00
+4.4%
10.7%JP¥1,090.00JP¥800.00n/a5
Jul ’25JP¥937.00
JP¥925.20
-1.3%
11.3%JP¥1,090.00JP¥800.00n/a5
Jun ’25JP¥950.50
JP¥901.20
-5.2%
8.1%JP¥1,000.00JP¥800.00n/a5
May ’25JP¥868.90
JP¥817.20
-6.0%
12.7%JP¥970.00JP¥650.00n/a5
Apr ’25JP¥924.70
JP¥822.67
-11.0%
11.2%JP¥950.00JP¥650.00n/a6
Mar ’25JP¥871.10
JP¥754.33
-13.4%
16.9%JP¥950.00JP¥546.00n/a6
Feb ’25JP¥808.80
JP¥667.67
-17.4%
22.9%JP¥950.00JP¥530.00n/a6
Jan ’25JP¥637.70
JP¥600.86
-5.8%
9.8%JP¥700.00JP¥530.00n/a7
Dec ’24JP¥605.30
JP¥602.00
-0.5%
9.2%JP¥700.00JP¥530.00n/a8
Nov ’24JP¥596.50
JP¥575.75
-3.5%
7.3%JP¥640.00JP¥520.00JP¥777.608
Oct ’24JP¥599.10
JP¥568.25
-5.1%
6.1%JP¥620.00JP¥520.00JP¥770.008
Sep ’24JP¥578.40
JP¥558.88
-3.4%
7.5%JP¥620.00JP¥480.00JP¥848.308
Aug ’24JP¥592.50
JP¥538.88
-9.1%
10.5%JP¥590.00JP¥450.00JP¥904.408
Jul ’24JP¥547.20
JP¥521.38
-4.7%
9.6%JP¥590.00JP¥450.00JP¥937.008
Jun ’24JP¥493.30
JP¥521.38
+5.7%
9.6%JP¥590.00JP¥450.00JP¥950.508
May ’24JP¥489.60
JP¥545.11
+11.3%
7.7%JP¥615.00JP¥480.00JP¥868.909
Apr ’24JP¥509.70
JP¥548.44
+7.6%
8.5%JP¥615.00JP¥480.00JP¥924.709
Mar ’24JP¥563.60
JP¥540.67
-4.1%
8.3%JP¥615.00JP¥480.00JP¥871.109
Feb ’24JP¥511.00
JP¥513.60
+0.5%
12.8%JP¥615.00JP¥400.00JP¥808.8010
Jan ’24JP¥488.60
JP¥514.60
+5.3%
13.1%JP¥620.00JP¥400.00JP¥637.7010
Dec ’23JP¥499.50
JP¥510.60
+2.2%
12.1%JP¥615.00JP¥400.00JP¥605.3010
Nov ’23JP¥483.20
JP¥520.60
+7.7%
10.5%JP¥615.00JP¥450.00JP¥596.5010

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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