Daiwa Securities Group Inc.

TSE:8601 Stock Report

Market Cap: JP¥1.4t

Daiwa Securities Group Valuation

Is 8601 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 8601 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 8601 (¥1008.5) is trading above our estimate of fair value (¥1005.46)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 8601 is trading above our estimate of fair value.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 8601?

Key metric: As 8601 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 8601. This is calculated by dividing 8601's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 8601's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio9.7x
EarningsJP¥145.84b
Market CapJP¥1.42t

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 8601's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 8601 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average16.1x
8473 SBI Holdings
11.7x11.3%JP¥1.1t
8604 Nomura Holdings
9.9x0.6%JP¥2.7t
2127 Nihon M&A Center Holdings
18.4x10.2%JP¥198.3b
8628 Matsui Securities
24.4x12.7%JP¥212.4b
8601 Daiwa Securities Group
9.7x1.7%JP¥1.4t

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 8601 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.7x) compared to the peer average (16.1x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 8601's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the JP Capital Markets Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
7176 Simplex Financial Holdings
1.3xn/aUS$59.77m
No more companies available in this PE range
8601 9.7xIndustry Avg. 14.3xNo. of Companies7PE0816243240+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 8601 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.7x) compared to the JP Capital Markets industry average (14.3x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 8601's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

8601 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio9.7x
Fair PE Ratio15.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 8601 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.4x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 8601 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentJP¥1,008.50
JP¥1,163.75
+15.4%
8.7%JP¥1,350.00JP¥1,050.00n/a8
Nov ’25JP¥1,002.50
JP¥1,163.75
+16.1%
8.7%JP¥1,350.00JP¥1,050.00n/a8
Oct ’25JP¥1,037.00
JP¥1,216.67
+17.3%
8.7%JP¥1,360.00JP¥1,100.00n/a6
Sep ’25JP¥1,074.00
JP¥1,243.33
+15.8%
6.4%JP¥1,360.00JP¥1,160.00n/a6
Aug ’25JP¥1,230.50
JP¥1,225.00
-0.4%
6.0%JP¥1,350.00JP¥1,160.00n/a4
Jul ’25JP¥1,242.00
JP¥1,225.00
-1.4%
6.0%JP¥1,350.00JP¥1,160.00n/a4
Jun ’25JP¥1,234.00
JP¥1,203.00
-2.5%
8.2%JP¥1,350.00JP¥1,072.00n/a4
May ’25JP¥1,130.50
JP¥1,088.00
-3.8%
8.3%JP¥1,190.00JP¥950.00n/a4
Apr ’25JP¥1,127.50
JP¥1,074.40
-4.7%
6.7%JP¥1,150.00JP¥950.00n/a5
Mar ’25JP¥1,103.00
JP¥990.80
-10.2%
14.7%JP¥1,150.00JP¥754.00n/a5
Feb ’25JP¥1,018.00
JP¥962.80
-5.4%
17.0%JP¥1,150.00JP¥754.00n/a5
Jan ’25JP¥949.10
JP¥849.00
-10.5%
18.3%JP¥1,140.00JP¥650.00n/a6
Dec ’24JP¥965.40
JP¥857.71
-11.2%
17.0%JP¥1,140.00JP¥650.00n/a7
Nov ’24JP¥947.70
JP¥759.57
-19.9%
11.6%JP¥910.00JP¥650.00JP¥1,002.507
Oct ’24JP¥863.10
JP¥739.57
-14.3%
12.1%JP¥840.00JP¥580.00JP¥1,037.007
Sep ’24JP¥835.10
JP¥688.00
-17.6%
12.8%JP¥820.00JP¥580.00JP¥1,074.007
Aug ’24JP¥791.50
JP¥662.29
-16.3%
12.6%JP¥813.00JP¥550.00JP¥1,230.507
Jul ’24JP¥740.30
JP¥642.29
-13.2%
12.1%JP¥813.00JP¥550.00JP¥1,242.007
Jun ’24JP¥635.00
JP¥642.29
+1.1%
12.1%JP¥813.00JP¥550.00JP¥1,234.007
May ’24JP¥638.00
JP¥622.57
-2.4%
7.5%JP¥665.00JP¥530.00JP¥1,130.507
Apr ’24JP¥621.00
JP¥619.71
-0.2%
10.3%JP¥700.00JP¥520.00JP¥1,127.507
Mar ’24JP¥650.00
JP¥621.14
-4.4%
10.4%JP¥700.00JP¥520.00JP¥1,103.007
Feb ’24JP¥607.00
JP¥601.00
-1.0%
9.5%JP¥665.00JP¥520.00JP¥1,018.008
Jan ’24JP¥583.00
JP¥589.13
+1.1%
8.9%JP¥660.00JP¥520.00JP¥949.108
Dec ’23JP¥610.00
JP¥612.56
+0.4%
13.8%JP¥810.00JP¥520.00JP¥965.409
Nov ’23JP¥589.00
JP¥611.44
+3.8%
13.5%JP¥810.00JP¥520.00JP¥947.709

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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