Revenue Beat: ORIX Corporation Beat Analyst Estimates By 9.0%

Investors in ORIX Corporation (TSE:8591) had a good week, as its shares rose 5.5% to close at JP¥4,039 following the release of its half-yearly results. It was a workmanlike result, with revenues of JP¥796b coming in 9.0% ahead of expectations, and statutory earnings per share of JP¥308, in line with analyst appraisals. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

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Following last week's earnings report, ORIX's seven analysts are forecasting 2026 revenues to be JP¥3.07t, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to decrease 4.3% to JP¥377 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥3.06t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥375 in 2026. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

Check out our latest analysis for ORIX

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of JP¥4,203, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on ORIX, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥4,800 and the most bearish at JP¥3,500 per share. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that ORIX's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 2.2% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 5.7% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 1.4% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while ORIX's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for ORIX going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 3 warning signs for ORIX (1 is potentially serious!) that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.