Credit Saison Co., Ltd. Just Missed Revenue By 32%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Credit Saison Co., Ltd. (TSE:8253) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 5.6% to JP¥3,395 in the week after its latest half-year results. Revenues were JP¥81b, 32% shy of what the analysts were expecting, although statutory earnings of JP¥453 per share were roughly in line with what was forecast. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Credit Saison after the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for Credit Saison

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the seven analysts covering Credit Saison, is for revenues of JP¥413.2b in 2025. This implies a small 5.7% reduction in Credit Saison's revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to decrease 6.9% to JP¥343 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥415.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥342 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at JP¥3,864. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Credit Saison at JP¥4,600 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥2,800. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Credit Saison shareholders.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 11% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 1.8% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 6.1% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Credit Saison is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Credit Saison's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Credit Saison going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Credit Saison (1 doesn't sit too well with us) you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.