Credit Saison Co., Ltd. Just Beat Revenue Estimates By 22%

Investors in Credit Saison Co., Ltd. (TSE:8253) had a good week, as its shares rose 3.5% to close at JP¥3,703 following the release of its third-quarter results. Revenue of JP¥143b came in a notable 22% ahead of expectations, while statutory earnings of JP¥453 were in line with what the analysts had been forecasting. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Credit Saison after the latest results.

View our latest analysis for Credit Saison

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the seven analysts covering Credit Saison, is for revenues of JP¥462.9b in 2026. This implies a discernible 2.8% reduction in Credit Saison's revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to dip 9.2% to JP¥405 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥470.8b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥405 in 2026. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of JP¥3,946, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Credit Saison analyst has a price target of JP¥4,600 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥2,800. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Credit Saison shareholders.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 2.2% annualised decline to the end of 2026. That is a notable change from historical growth of 3.6% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 5.4% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Credit Saison is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥3,946, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Credit Saison going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Before you take the next step you should know about the 2 warning signs for Credit Saison (1 shouldn't be ignored!) that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.