Results: Net Protections Holdings, Inc. Exceeded Expectations And The Consensus Has Updated Its Estimates

A week ago, Net Protections Holdings, Inc. (TSE:7383) came out with a strong set of quarterly numbers that could potentially lead to a re-rate of the stock. The company beat forecasts, with revenue of JP¥6.2b, some 2.7% above estimates, and statutory earnings per share (EPS) coming in at JP¥4.77, 50% ahead of expectations. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Net Protections Holdings' four analysts is for revenues of JP¥25.4b in 2026. This would reflect a solid 9.7% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to reduce 3.5% to JP¥16.42 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥25.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥15.58 in 2026. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on Net Protections Holdings' earnings potential following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for Net Protections Holdings

The consensus price target was unchanged at JP¥660, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Net Protections Holdings analyst has a price target of JP¥800 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥530. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Net Protections Holdings shareholders.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting Net Protections Holdings' growth to accelerate, with the forecast 13% annualised growth to the end of 2026 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 8.4% per annum over the past three years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 5.6% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Net Protections Holdings is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Net Protections Holdings' earnings potential next year. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥660, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Net Protections Holdings. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Net Protections Holdings going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Net Protections Holdings you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.