A Look At The Intrinsic Value Of Fujita Kanko Inc. (TSE:9722)

Key Insights

• Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Fujita Kanko fair value estimate is JP¥6,212
• With JP¥7,120 share price, Fujita Kanko appears to be trading close to its estimated fair value
• Industry average of 250% suggests Fujita Kanko's peers are currently trading at a higher premium to fair value

Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Fujita Kanko Inc. (TSE:9722) as an investment opportunity by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is the tool we will apply to do this. There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex.

We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Check out our latest analysis for Fujita Kanko

The Model

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033
Levered FCF (¥, Millions)	JP¥7.27b	JP¥6.06b	JP¥6.27b	JP¥5.94b	JP¥5.72b	JP¥5.58b	JP¥5.48b	JP¥5.42b	JP¥5.38b	JP¥5.36b
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x1	Analyst x1	Analyst x1	Est @ -5.31%	Est @ -3.66%	Est @ -2.50%	Est @ -1.69%	Est @ -1.12%	Est @ -0.73%	Est @ -0.45%
Present Value (¥, Millions) Discounted @ 7.7%	JP¥6.8k	JP¥5.2k	JP¥5.0k	JP¥4.4k	JP¥3.9k	JP¥3.6k	JP¥3.3k	JP¥3.0k	JP¥2.8k	JP¥2.5k

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = JP¥40b

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 0.2%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 7.7%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₃ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = JP¥5.4b× (1 + 0.2%) ÷ (7.7%– 0.2%) = JP¥71b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= JP¥71b÷ ( 1 + 7.7%)¹⁰= JP¥34b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is JP¥74b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of JP¥7.1k, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.

Important Assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Fujita Kanko as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.7%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.334. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Fujita Kanko

Next Steps:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For Fujita Kanko, there are three additional items you should further research:

1. Risks: We feel that you should assess the 3 warning signs for Fujita Kanko (1 is significant!) we've flagged before making an investment in the company.
2. Future Earnings: How does 9722's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the TSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com