An Intrinsic Calculation For COSMOS Pharmaceutical Corporation (TSE:3349) Suggests It's 41% Undervalued

Key Insights

• The projected fair value for COSMOS Pharmaceutical is JP¥23,011 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
• Current share price of JP¥13,525 suggests COSMOS Pharmaceutical is potentially 41% undervalued
• The JP¥15,581 analyst price target for 3349 is 32% less than our estimate of fair value

Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of COSMOS Pharmaceutical Corporation (TSE:3349) as an investment opportunity by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. Believe it or not, it's not too difficult to follow, as you'll see from our example!

We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.

View our latest analysis for COSMOS Pharmaceutical

Crunching The Numbers

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034
Levered FCF (¥, Millions)	JP¥3.93b	JP¥5.67b	JP¥10.8b	JP¥7.26b	JP¥21.9b	JP¥27.9b	JP¥33.3b	JP¥37.9b	JP¥41.6b	JP¥44.4b
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x3	Analyst x5	Analyst x3	Analyst x2	Analyst x1	Est @ 27.67%	Est @ 19.45%	Est @ 13.69%	Est @ 9.66%	Est @ 6.84%
Present Value (¥, Millions) Discounted @ 4.2%	JP¥3.8k	JP¥5.2k	JP¥9.6k	JP¥6.1k	JP¥17.8k	JP¥21.8k	JP¥24.9k	JP¥27.2k	JP¥28.6k	JP¥29.3k

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = JP¥174b

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (0.3%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 4.2%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₄ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = JP¥44b× (1 + 0.3%) ÷ (4.2%– 0.3%) = JP¥1.1t

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= JP¥1.1t÷ ( 1 + 4.2%)¹⁰= JP¥738b

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is JP¥912b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of JP¥14k, the company appears quite undervalued at a 41% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.

The Assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at COSMOS Pharmaceutical as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 4.2%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.800. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for COSMOS Pharmaceutical

Moving On:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. Why is the intrinsic value higher than the current share price? For COSMOS Pharmaceutical, there are three important aspects you should further examine:

1. Financial Health: Does 3349 have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
2. Future Earnings: How does 3349's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Japanese stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.