Is Oomitsu (TSE:3160) A Risky Investment?

David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We can see that Oomitsu Co., Ltd. (TSE:3160) does use debt in its business. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.

When Is Debt Dangerous?

Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.

Check out our latest analysis for Oomitsu

What Is Oomitsu's Debt?

You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of May 2024 Oomitsu had JP¥7.02b of debt, an increase on JP¥4.93b, over one year. However, it does have JP¥685.0m in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about JP¥6.33b.

A Look At Oomitsu's Liabilities

According to the last reported balance sheet, Oomitsu had liabilities of JP¥11.8b due within 12 months, and liabilities of JP¥5.89b due beyond 12 months. On the other hand, it had cash of JP¥685.0m and JP¥6.24b worth of receivables due within a year. So it has liabilities totalling JP¥10.8b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.

When you consider that this deficiency exceeds the company's JP¥8.55b market capitalization, you might well be inclined to review the balance sheet intently. Hypothetically, extremely heavy dilution would be required if the company were forced to pay down its liabilities by raising capital at the current share price.

We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.

Oomitsu's net debt is 4.0 times its EBITDA, which is a significant but still reasonable amount of leverage. But its EBIT was about 155 times its interest expense, implying the company isn't really paying a high cost to maintain that level of debt. Even were the low cost to prove unsustainable, that is a good sign. It is well worth noting that Oomitsu's EBIT shot up like bamboo after rain, gaining 42% in the last twelve months. That'll make it easier to manage its debt. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since Oomitsu will need earnings to service that debt. So if you're keen to discover more about its earnings, it might be worth checking out this graph of its long term earnings trend.

But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. During the last three years, Oomitsu burned a lot of cash. While that may be a result of expenditure for growth, it does make the debt far more risky.

Our View

We'd go so far as to say Oomitsu's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow was disappointing. But on the bright side, its interest cover is a good sign, and makes us more optimistic. Once we consider all the factors above, together, it seems to us that Oomitsu's debt is making it a bit risky. Some people like that sort of risk, but we're mindful of the potential pitfalls, so we'd probably prefer it carry less debt. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. Case in point: We've spotted 4 warning signs for Oomitsu you should be aware of, and 1 of them doesn't sit too well with us.

If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.