Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. As with many other companies O'will Corporation (TSE:3143) makes use of debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
When Is Debt A Problem?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
Check out our latest analysis for O'will
What Is O'will's Net Debt?
The chart below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that O'will had JP¥2.19b in debt in March 2024; about the same as the year before. However, it does have JP¥1.85b in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about JP¥342.0m.
How Strong Is O'will's Balance Sheet?
According to the last reported balance sheet, O'will had liabilities of JP¥7.64b due within 12 months, and liabilities of JP¥1.44b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting this, it had JP¥1.85b in cash and JP¥6.54b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling JP¥697.0m more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
Given O'will has a market capitalization of JP¥4.10b, it's hard to believe these liabilities pose much threat. However, we do think it is worth keeping an eye on its balance sheet strength, as it may change over time.
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
O'will has a low net debt to EBITDA ratio of only 0.33. And its EBIT easily covers its interest expense, being 1k times the size. So we're pretty relaxed about its super-conservative use of debt. While O'will doesn't seem to have gained much on the EBIT line, at least earnings remain stable for now. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is O'will's earnings that will influence how the balance sheet holds up in the future. So if you're keen to discover more about its earnings, it might be worth checking out this graph of its long term earnings trend.
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. In the last three years, O'will created free cash flow amounting to 12% of its EBIT, an uninspiring performance. For us, cash conversion that low sparks a little paranoia about is ability to extinguish debt.
Our View
O'will's interest cover was a real positive on this analysis, as was its net debt to EBITDA. On the other hand, its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow makes us a little less comfortable about its debt. When we consider all the elements mentioned above, it seems to us that O'will is managing its debt quite well. But a word of caution: we think debt levels are high enough to justify ongoing monitoring. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. These risks can be hard to spot. Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for O'will you should know about.
Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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About TSE:3143
O'will
Engages in the import/export and sale of food and drink materials in Japan and internationally.
Solid track record average dividend payer.