There's Reason For Concern Over Asaka Riken Co.,Ltd.'s (TSE:5724) Massive 37% Price Jump

Despite an already strong run, Asaka Riken Co.,Ltd. (TSE:5724) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 37% in the last thirty days. The annual gain comes to 106% following the latest surge, making investors sit up and take notice.

After such a large jump in price, Asaka RikenLtd's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 38.5x might make it look like a strong sell right now compared to the market in Japan, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 14x and even P/E's below 10x are quite common. However, the P/E might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

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For example, consider that Asaka RikenLtd's financial performance has been poor lately as its earnings have been in decline. It might be that many expect the company to still outplay most other companies over the coming period, which has kept the P/E from collapsing. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

Check out our latest analysis for Asaka RikenLtd

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Asaka RikenLtd, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

How Is Asaka RikenLtd's Growth Trending?

Asaka RikenLtd's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very strong growth, and importantly, perform much better than the market.

Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 36%. This means it has also seen a slide in earnings over the longer-term as EPS is down 60% in total over the last three years. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of earnings growth.

Weighing that medium-term earnings trajectory against the broader market's one-year forecast for expansion of 11% shows it's an unpleasant look.

In light of this, it's alarming that Asaka RikenLtd's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

The Final Word

Shares in Asaka RikenLtd have built up some good momentum lately, which has really inflated its P/E. While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.

We've established that Asaka RikenLtd currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its recent earnings have been in decline over the medium-term. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as this earnings performance is highly unlikely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 3 warning signs for Asaka RikenLtd (1 is a bit concerning!) that you need to be mindful of.

If you're unsure about the strength of Asaka RikenLtd's business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.