Revenue Miss: Cosel Co., Ltd. Fell 15% Short Of Analyst Revenue Estimates And Analysts Have Been Revising Their Models

Shareholders might have noticed that Cosel Co., Ltd. (TSE:6905) filed its half-year result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 9.6% to JP¥1,038 in the past week. Revenues were JP¥15b, 15% below analyst expectations, although losses didn't appear to worsen significantly, with a per-share statutory loss of JP¥156 being in line with what the analysts forecast. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Cosel after the latest results.

See our latest analysis for Cosel

Taking into account the latest results, the twin analysts covering Cosel provided consensus estimates of JP¥29.5b revenue in 2025, which would reflect a considerable 15% decline over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to crater 58% to JP¥19.40 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥36.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥72.19 in 2025. It looks like sentiment has declined substantially in the aftermath of these results, with a substantial drop in revenue estimates and a large cut to earnings per share numbers as well.

It'll come as no surprise then, to learn that the analysts have cut their price target 21% to JP¥1,100.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 28% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 12% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 4.2% per year. It's pretty clear that Cosel's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Cosel's future valuation.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At least one analyst has provided forecasts out to 2027, which can be seen for free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 3 warning signs for Cosel that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.