Daifuku's (TSE:6383) three-year earnings growth trails the favorable shareholder returns

By buying an index fund, you can roughly match the market return with ease. But if you pick the right individual stocks, you could make more than that. For example, the Daifuku Co., Ltd. (TSE:6383) share price is up 59% in the last three years, clearly besting the market return of around 44% (not including dividends). However, more recent returns haven't been as impressive as that, with the stock returning just 18% in the last year, including dividends.

After a strong gain in the past week, it's worth seeing if longer term returns have been driven by improving fundamentals.

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To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

Daifuku was able to grow its EPS at 30% per year over three years, sending the share price higher. The average annual share price increase of 17% is actually lower than the EPS growth. Therefore, it seems the market has moderated its expectations for growth, somewhat.

You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

We know that Daifuku has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? Check if analysts think Daifuku will grow revenue in the future.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of Daifuku, it has a TSR of 66% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

It's good to see that Daifuku has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 18% in the last twelve months. That's including the dividend. That gain is better than the annual TSR over five years, which is 9%. Therefore it seems like sentiment around the company has been positive lately. Given the share price momentum remains strong, it might be worth taking a closer look at the stock, lest you miss an opportunity. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Consider risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Daifuku you should know about.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Japanese exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.