Nabtesco Corporation Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

Investors in Nabtesco Corporation (TSE:6268) had a good week, as its shares rose 5.2% to close at JP¥2,252 following the release of its quarterly results. Results were mixed, with revenues of JP¥82b exceeding expectations, even as earnings per share (EPS) came up short. Statutory earnings were JP¥27.33 per share, -14% below whatthe analysts had forecast. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, Nabtesco's nine analysts currently expect revenues in 2025 to be JP¥339.3b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to shoot up 24% to JP¥111. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥339.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥111 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

Check out our latest analysis for Nabtesco

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of JP¥2,684, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Nabtesco analyst has a price target of JP¥3,500 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥2,250. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Nabtesco's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 2.6% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 3.8% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 4.4% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Nabtesco is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Nabtesco's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥2,684, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Nabtesco going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Nabtesco that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.