Toyo Tanso Co., Ltd. Beat Analyst Estimates: See What The Consensus Is Forecasting For This Year

Toyo Tanso Co., Ltd. (TSE:5310) last week reported its latest annual results, which makes it a good time for investors to dive in and see if the business is performing in line with expectations. Toyo Tanso reported JP¥53b in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥475 beat expectations, being 7.5% higher than what the analysts expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Toyo Tanso

Following the latest results, Toyo Tanso's eight analysts are now forecasting revenues of JP¥56.5b in 2025. This would be a satisfactory 6.4% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to descend 15% to JP¥403 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥57.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥435 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at JP¥6,665, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Toyo Tanso analyst has a price target of JP¥10,000 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥4,420. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Toyo Tanso's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 6.4% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 11% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 4.2% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Toyo Tanso's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Toyo Tanso. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Toyo Tanso going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Toyo Tanso has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.