JP¥5,529: That's What Analysts Think Toyo Tanso Co., Ltd. (TSE:5310) Is Worth After Its Latest Results

It's been a good week for Toyo Tanso Co., Ltd. (TSE:5310) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest quarterly results, and the shares gained 2.3% to JP¥4,140. Revenues came in 4.5% below expectations, at JP¥11b. Statutory earnings per share were relatively better off, with a per-share profit of JP¥475 being roughly in line with analyst estimates. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, Toyo Tanso's eight analysts currently expect revenues in 2025 to be JP¥52.6b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to drop 17% to JP¥352 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥54.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥377 in 2025. The analysts are less bullish than they were before these results, given the reduced revenue forecasts and the small dip in earnings per share expectations.

See our latest analysis for Toyo Tanso

The consensus price target fell 5.8% to JP¥5,529, with the weaker earnings outlook clearly leading valuation estimates. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Toyo Tanso at JP¥9,000 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥4,000. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that Toyo Tanso's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 1.6% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 12% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 3.8% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Toyo Tanso is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Toyo Tanso. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Toyo Tanso going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Toyo Tanso has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.