The five-year decline in earnings for Toda TSE:1860) isn't encouraging, but shareholders are still up 59% over that period

While Toda Corporation (TSE:1860) shareholders are probably generally happy, the stock hasn't had particularly good run recently, with the share price falling 14% in the last quarter. On the bright side the share price is up over the last half decade. In that time, it is up 33%, which isn't bad, but is below the market return of 74%.

Since the long term performance has been good but there's been a recent pullback of 3.7%, let's check if the fundamentals match the share price.

View our latest analysis for Toda

In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

Toda's earnings per share are down 8.8% per year, despite strong share price performance over five years.

Essentially, it doesn't seem likely that investors are focused on EPS. Since the change in EPS doesn't seem to correlate with the change in share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics.

We are not particularly impressed by the annual compound revenue growth of 0.05% over five years. So it seems one might have to take closer look at earnings and revenue trends to see how they might influence the share price.

You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

We know that Toda has improved its bottom line lately, but what does the future have in store? If you are thinking of buying or selling Toda stock, you should check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. As it happens, Toda's TSR for the last 5 years was 59%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

Toda shareholders gained a total return of 19% during the year. But that was short of the market average. The silver lining is that the gain was actually better than the average annual return of 10% per year over five year. This could indicate that the company is winning over new investors, as it pursues its strategy. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Even so, be aware that Toda is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...

If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of undervalued small caps that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Japanese exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.