Honda Motor (TSE:7267) Is Down 7.6% After Extended Production Slump Paired With Surging Exports – Has Investor Sentiment Shifted?

• In September 2025, Honda Motor Co., Ltd. presented at MOVE America in Detroit and Morgan Stanley Asia BEST Corporate Day in New York, while reporting August 2025 global automobile production falling for the thirteenth consecutive month to 267,005 units.
• Despite ongoing production declines, Honda’s Japanese exports saw very large growth for a fifth straight month, highlighting resilience in international demand amid operational headwinds.
• We'll examine how Honda’s extended production downturn and strong export momentum reshape the company's investment narrative and future outlook.

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Honda Motor Investment Narrative Recap

Being invested in Honda today means believing that the company's global brand strength, resilient international demand, and longer-term focus on electrification and cost efficiency can balance current profit pressures from auto market competition and shifts in consumer mobility. News of ongoing production declines and surging Japanese exports may not materially affect the most important near-term catalysts, such as progress in localizing hybrid and EV manufacturing in North America, but persistent headwinds remain, especially around profit margin recovery and competitive positioning in China. Among recent announcements, Honda’s major share buyback program, which just reached completion, stands out for its potential short-term support to shareholder value and as a response to recent earnings volatility. While separate from operational headlines like production data, this buyback may become increasingly relevant if export gains fail to offset sustained sales and margin pressures going forward. Yet, what’s less obvious is how quickly intensifying competition, particularly with Chinese automakers and global price discounting, could further challenge Honda’s ability to...

Read the full narrative on Honda Motor (it's free!)

Honda Motor's narrative projects ¥22,320.2 billion revenue and ¥855.5 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 1.1% yearly revenue growth and a ¥217.7 billion earnings increase from ¥637.8 billion.

Uncover how Honda Motor's forecasts yield a ¥1735 fair value, a 14% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

The Simply Wall St Community submitted five individual fair value estimates for Honda, ranging from JP¥218.55 to over JP¥2.16 billion per share. While these investor views span from extremely conservative to wildly optimistic, ongoing margin compression from price competition continues to present a challenge for Honda’s earnings outlook, reminding you to consider a broad spectrum of opinions when forming your view on the company’s performance.

Explore 5 other fair value estimates on Honda Motor - why the stock might be worth less than half the current price!

Build Your Own Honda Motor Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Honda Motor research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Honda Motor research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Honda Motor's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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