Aisin Corporation Just Beat EPS By 38%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

It's been a good week for Aisin Corporation (TSE:7259) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest quarterly results, and the shares gained 8.4% to JP¥2,161. Revenues were JP¥1.2t, approximately in line with whatthe analysts expected, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) crushed expectations, coming in at JP¥52.31, an impressive 38% ahead of estimates. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, Aisin's 14 analysts currently expect revenues in 2026 to be JP¥4.96t, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to rise 8.6% to JP¥192. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥4.95t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥192 in 2026. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

See our latest analysis for Aisin

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of JP¥2,112, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Aisin analyst has a price target of JP¥2,500 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥1,500. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Aisin's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 0.6% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 8.3% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 2.6% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Aisin is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥2,112, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Aisin. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Aisin analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Aisin that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.