Is Mikuni (TSE:7247) A Risky Investment?

Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We note that Mikuni Corporation (TSE:7247) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.

Why Does Debt Bring Risk?

Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.

See our latest analysis for Mikuni

What Is Mikuni's Net Debt?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at March 2024 Mikuni had debt of JP¥38.8b, up from JP¥35.7b in one year. However, it does have JP¥3.11b in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about JP¥35.7b.

How Strong Is Mikuni's Balance Sheet?

We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Mikuni had liabilities of JP¥43.3b falling due within a year, and liabilities of JP¥27.7b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of JP¥3.11b as well as receivables valued at JP¥23.2b due within 12 months. So its liabilities total JP¥44.6b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

This deficit casts a shadow over the JP¥9.86b company, like a colossus towering over mere mortals. So we definitely think shareholders need to watch this one closely. At the end of the day, Mikuni would probably need a major re-capitalization if its creditors were to demand repayment.

In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.

Mikuni's debt is 3.9 times its EBITDA, and its EBIT cover its interest expense 6.3 times over. Taken together this implies that, while we wouldn't want to see debt levels rise, we think it can handle its current leverage. One way Mikuni could vanquish its debt would be if it stops borrowing more but continues to grow EBIT at around 19%, as it did over the last year. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since Mikuni will need earnings to service that debt. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.

Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. During the last three years, Mikuni burned a lot of cash. While investors are no doubt expecting a reversal of that situation in due course, it clearly does mean its use of debt is more risky.

Our View

On the face of it, Mikuni's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow left us tentative about the stock, and its level of total liabilities was no more enticing than the one empty restaurant on the busiest night of the year. But at least it's pretty decent at growing its EBIT; that's encouraging. We're quite clear that we consider Mikuni to be really rather risky, as a result of its balance sheet health. So we're almost as wary of this stock as a hungry kitten is about falling into its owner's fish pond: once bitten, twice shy, as they say. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For example, we've discovered 4 warning signs for Mikuni (1 is concerning!) that you should be aware of before investing here.

If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com