Snam S.p.A. Recorded A 21% Miss On Revenue: Analysts Are Revisiting Their Models

Last week, you might have seen that Snam S.p.A. (BIT:SRG) released its quarterly result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 5.1% to €4.22 in the past week. Snam reported a serious miss, with revenue of €852m falling a huge 21% short of analyst estimates. The bright side is that statutory earnings per share of €0.34 were in line with forecasts. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

View our latest analysis for Snam

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Snam's 16 analysts is for revenues of €4.23b in 2025. This reflects a reasonable 3.8% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to surge 21% to €0.37. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of €4.39b and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.38 in 2025. The consensus seems maybe a little more pessimistic, trimming their revenue forecasts after the latest results even though there was no change to its EPS estimates.

The consensus has reconfirmed its price target of €5.00, showing that the analysts don't expect weaker revenue expectations next year to have a material impact on Snam's market value. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Snam analyst has a price target of €5.60 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at €4.20. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Snam's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 3.0% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 11% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 4.2% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Snam is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. Still, earnings per share are more important to value creation for shareholders. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Snam going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Plus, you should also learn about the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Snam .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.