What Does Technogym S.p.A.'s (BIT:TGYM) Share Price Indicate?

While Technogym S.p.A. (BIT:TGYM) might not be the most widely known stock at the moment, it led the BIT gainers with a relatively large price hike in the past couple of weeks. With many analysts covering the mid-cap stock, we may expect any price-sensitive announcements have already been factored into the stock’s share price. But what if there is still an opportunity to buy? Today I will analyse the most recent data on Technogym’s outlook and valuation to see if the opportunity still exists.

View our latest analysis for Technogym

What's the opportunity in Technogym?

Technogym appears to be expensive according to my price multiple model, which makes a comparison between the company's price-to-earnings ratio and the industry average. I’ve used the price-to-earnings ratio in this instance because there’s not enough visibility to forecast its cash flows. The stock’s ratio of 29.1x is currently well-above the industry average of 19.2x, meaning that it is trading at a more expensive price relative to its peers. But, is there another opportunity to buy low in the future? Since Technogym’s share price is quite volatile, this could mean it can sink lower (or rise even further) in the future, giving us another chance to invest. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for how much the stock moves relative to the rest of the market.

What does the future of Technogym look like?

Future outlook is an important aspect when you’re looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. Though in the case of Technogym, it is expected to deliver a relatively unexciting earnings growth of 9.6%, which doesn’t help build up its investment thesis. Growth doesn’t appear to be a main reason for a buy decision for the company, at least in the near term.

What this means for you:

Are you a shareholder? TGYM’s future growth appears to have been factored into the current share price, with shares trading above industry price multiples. At this current price, shareholders may be asking a different question – should I sell? If you believe TGYM should trade below its current price, selling high and buying it back up again when its price falls towards the industry PE ratio can be profitable. But before you make this decision, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.

Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping tabs on TGYM for some time, now may not be the best time to enter into the stock. The price has surpassed its industry peers, which means it is likely that there is no more upside from mispricing. However, the positive growth outlook may mean it’s worth diving deeper into other factors in order to take advantage of the next price drop.

So while earnings quality is important, it's equally important to consider the risks facing Technogym at this point in time. For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign that you should run your eye over to get a better picture of Technogym.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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