Caleffi's (BIT:CLF) Soft Earnings Don't Show The Whole Picture

Soft earnings didn't appear to concern Caleffi S.p.A.'s (BIT:CLF) shareholders over the last week. We think that the softer headline numbers might be getting counterbalanced by some positive underlying factors.

Check out our latest analysis for Caleffi

Examining Cashflow Against Caleffi's Earnings

As finance nerds would already know, the accrual ratio from cashflow is a key measure for assessing how well a company's free cash flow (FCF) matches its profit. The accrual ratio subtracts the FCF from the profit for a given period, and divides the result by the average operating assets of the company over that time. This ratio tells us how much of a company's profit is not backed by free cashflow.

As a result, a negative accrual ratio is a positive for the company, and a positive accrual ratio is a negative. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. Notably, there is some academic evidence that suggests that a high accrual ratio is a bad sign for near-term profits, generally speaking.

For the year to June 2023, Caleffi had an accrual ratio of -0.10. Therefore, its statutory earnings were quite a lot less than its free cashflow. To wit, it produced free cash flow of €4.7m during the period, dwarfing its reported profit of €1.77m. Caleffi's free cash flow improved over the last year, which is generally good to see.

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

Our Take On Caleffi's Profit Performance

Caleffi's accrual ratio is solid, and indicates strong free cash flow, as we discussed, above. Based on this observation, we consider it likely that Caleffi's statutory profit actually understates its earnings potential! Better yet, its EPS are growing strongly, which is nice to see. The goal of this article has been to assess how well we can rely on the statutory earnings to reflect the company's potential, but there is plenty more to consider. Keep in mind, when it comes to analysing a stock it's worth noting the risks involved. For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs that you should run your eye over to get a better picture of Caleffi.

Today we've zoomed in on a single data point to better understand the nature of Caleffi's profit. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying to be useful.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.