Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We can see that Reginn hf. (ICE:REGINN) does use debt in its business. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
When Is Debt A Problem?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
See our latest analysis for Reginn hf
What Is Reginn hf's Net Debt?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of December 2020 Reginn hf had Kr90.5b of debt, an increase on Kr84.0b, over one year. On the flip side, it has Kr3.63b in cash leading to net debt of about Kr86.9b.
A Look At Reginn hf's Liabilities
According to the last reported balance sheet, Reginn hf had liabilities of Kr4.49b due within 12 months, and liabilities of Kr101.6b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting this, it had Kr3.63b in cash and Kr1.51b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by Kr101.0b.
This deficit casts a shadow over the Kr39.0b company, like a colossus towering over mere mortals. So we definitely think shareholders need to watch this one closely. At the end of the day, Reginn hf would probably need a major re-capitalization if its creditors were to demand repayment.
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
Reginn hf shareholders face the double whammy of a high net debt to EBITDA ratio (13.6), and fairly weak interest coverage, since EBIT is just 1.8 times the interest expense. The debt burden here is substantial. Even more troubling is the fact that Reginn hf actually let its EBIT decrease by 5.0% over the last year. If it keeps going like that paying off its debt will be like running on a treadmill -- a lot of effort for not much advancement. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is Reginn hf's earnings that will influence how the balance sheet holds up in the future. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. Looking at the most recent three years, Reginn hf recorded free cash flow of 43% of its EBIT, which is weaker than we'd expect. That weak cash conversion makes it more difficult to handle indebtedness.
Our View
On the face of it, Reginn hf's net debt to EBITDA left us tentative about the stock, and its level of total liabilities was no more enticing than the one empty restaurant on the busiest night of the year. Having said that, its ability to convert EBIT to free cash flow isn't such a worry. After considering the datapoints discussed, we think Reginn hf has too much debt. While some investors love that sort of risky play, it's certainly not our cup of tea. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For example, we've discovered 4 warning signs for Reginn hf (2 shouldn't be ignored!) that you should be aware of before investing here.
At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.
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About ICSE:HEIMAR
Heimar hf
A real estate company, invests in, leases, and manages commercial properties in Iceland.
Low with poor track record.