Stock Analysis

We Think Reginn hf (ICE:REGINN) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt

ICSE:REGINN
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The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. As with many other companies Reginn hf. (ICE:REGINN) makes use of debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?

When Is Debt Dangerous?

Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.

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How Much Debt Does Reginn hf Carry?

You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of September 2023 Reginn hf had Kr115.8b of debt, an increase on Kr108.6b, over one year. However, it does have Kr3.84b in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about Kr112.0b.

debt-equity-history-analysis
ICSE:REGINN Debt to Equity History January 7th 2024

A Look At Reginn hf's Liabilities

Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Reginn hf had liabilities of Kr6.02b due within 12 months and liabilities of Kr129.3b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of Kr3.84b as well as receivables valued at Kr704.0m due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by Kr130.7b.

The deficiency here weighs heavily on the Kr47.8b company itself, as if a child were struggling under the weight of an enormous back-pack full of books, his sports gear, and a trumpet. So we'd watch its balance sheet closely, without a doubt. After all, Reginn hf would likely require a major re-capitalisation if it had to pay its creditors today.

We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).

Reginn hf shareholders face the double whammy of a high net debt to EBITDA ratio (11.9), and fairly weak interest coverage, since EBIT is just 2.5 times the interest expense. The debt burden here is substantial. On a slightly more positive note, Reginn hf grew its EBIT at 15% over the last year, further increasing its ability to manage debt. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since Reginn hf will need earnings to service that debt. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.

Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. During the last three years, Reginn hf produced sturdy free cash flow equating to 53% of its EBIT, about what we'd expect. This free cash flow puts the company in a good position to pay down debt, when appropriate.

Our View

To be frank both Reginn hf's net debt to EBITDA and its track record of staying on top of its total liabilities make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. But on the bright side, its EBIT growth rate is a good sign, and makes us more optimistic. Overall, it seems to us that Reginn hf's balance sheet is really quite a risk to the business. So we're almost as wary of this stock as a hungry kitten is about falling into its owner's fish pond: once bitten, twice shy, as they say. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. Be aware that Reginn hf is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those doesn't sit too well with us...

If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.