Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We can see that North Eastern Carrying Corporation Limited (NSE:NECCLTD) does use debt in its business. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
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What Is North Eastern Carrying's Debt?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at September 2022 North Eastern Carrying had debt of ₹1.12b, up from ₹976.5m in one year. However, it also had ₹82.9m in cash, and so its net debt is ₹1.03b.
A Look At North Eastern Carrying's Liabilities
The latest balance sheet data shows that North Eastern Carrying had liabilities of ₹1.26b due within a year, and liabilities of ₹61.6m falling due after that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of ₹82.9m as well as receivables valued at ₹1.94b due within 12 months. So it can boast ₹699.5m more liquid assets than total liabilities.
This excess liquidity is a great indication that North Eastern Carrying's balance sheet is almost as strong as Fort Knox. With this in mind one could posit that its balance sheet means the company is able to handle some adversity.
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
Weak interest cover of 2.4 times and a disturbingly high net debt to EBITDA ratio of 5.4 hit our confidence in North Eastern Carrying like a one-two punch to the gut. The debt burden here is substantial. However, one redeeming factor is that North Eastern Carrying grew its EBIT at 16% over the last 12 months, boosting its ability to handle its debt. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since North Eastern Carrying will need earnings to service that debt. So if you're keen to discover more about its earnings, it might be worth checking out this graph of its long term earnings trend.
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. Over the last three years, North Eastern Carrying saw substantial negative free cash flow, in total. While that may be a result of expenditure for growth, it does make the debt far more risky.
Our View
North Eastern Carrying's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow was a real negative on this analysis, as was its net debt to EBITDA. But like a ballerina ending on a perfect pirouette, it has not trouble staying on top of its total liabilities. When we consider all the elements mentioned above, it seems to us that North Eastern Carrying is managing its debt quite well. Having said that, the load is sufficiently heavy that we would recommend any shareholders keep a close eye on it. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. We've identified 3 warning signs with North Eastern Carrying (at least 2 which are a bit concerning) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About NSEI:NECCLTD
Proven track record with adequate balance sheet.