Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. As with many other companies North Eastern Carrying Corporation Limited (NSE:NECCLTD) makes use of debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
When Is Debt A Problem?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
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How Much Debt Does North Eastern Carrying Carry?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of March 2021 North Eastern Carrying had ₹861.7m of debt, an increase on ₹761.2m, over one year. However, because it has a cash reserve of ₹55.3m, its net debt is less, at about ₹806.4m.
How Healthy Is North Eastern Carrying's Balance Sheet?
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that North Eastern Carrying had liabilities of ₹1.00b falling due within a year, and liabilities of ₹15.9m due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had ₹55.3m in cash and ₹1.73b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So it actually has ₹772.0m more liquid assets than total liabilities.
This surplus liquidity suggests that North Eastern Carrying's balance sheet could take a hit just as well as Homer Simpson's head can take a punch. Having regard to this fact, we think its balance sheet is as strong as an ox.
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
North Eastern Carrying shareholders face the double whammy of a high net debt to EBITDA ratio (6.9), and fairly weak interest coverage, since EBIT is just 1.3 times the interest expense. This means we'd consider it to have a heavy debt load. Even worse, North Eastern Carrying saw its EBIT tank 44% over the last 12 months. If earnings continue to follow that trajectory, paying off that debt load will be harder than convincing us to run a marathon in the rain. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since North Eastern Carrying will need earnings to service that debt. So if you're keen to discover more about its earnings, it might be worth checking out this graph of its long term earnings trend.
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. Over the last three years, North Eastern Carrying saw substantial negative free cash flow, in total. While that may be a result of expenditure for growth, it does make the debt far more risky.
Our View
On the face of it, North Eastern Carrying's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow left us tentative about the stock, and its EBIT growth rate was no more enticing than the one empty restaurant on the busiest night of the year. But at least it's pretty decent at staying on top of its total liabilities; that's encouraging. Once we consider all the factors above, together, it seems to us that North Eastern Carrying's debt is making it a bit risky. Some people like that sort of risk, but we're mindful of the potential pitfalls, so we'd probably prefer it carry less debt. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. These risks can be hard to spot. Every company has them, and we've spotted 5 warning signs for North Eastern Carrying (of which 2 are potentially serious!) you should know about.
Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.
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About NSEI:NECCLTD
Proven track record with adequate balance sheet.