Results: InterGlobe Aviation Limited Exceeded Expectations And The Consensus Has Updated Its Estimates

As you might know, InterGlobe Aviation Limited (NSE:INDIGO) just kicked off its latest third-quarter results with some very strong numbers. The company beat forecasts, with revenue of ₹195b, some 6.6% above estimates, and statutory earnings per share (EPS) coming in at ₹77.58, 57% ahead of expectations. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

View our latest analysis for InterGlobe Aviation

Following the latest results, InterGlobe Aviation's ten analysts are now forecasting revenues of ₹739.8b in 2025. This would be a meaningful 13% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to decline 10% to ₹167 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of ₹722.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of ₹161 in 2025. It looks like there's been a modest increase in sentiment following the latest results, withthe analysts becoming a bit more optimistic in their predictions for both revenues and earnings.

It will come as no surprise to learn that the analysts have increased their price target for InterGlobe Aviation 11% to ₹3,500on the back of these upgrades. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values InterGlobe Aviation at ₹4,145 per share, while the most bearish prices it at ₹2,500. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that InterGlobe Aviation's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 11% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 20% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this to the 35 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 12% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while InterGlobe Aviation's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around InterGlobe Aviation's earnings potential next year. There was also an upgrade to revenue estimates, although as we saw earlier, forecast growth is only expected to be about the same as the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for InterGlobe Aviation going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for InterGlobe Aviation that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.