Allcargo Logistics Limited Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

Allcargo Logistics Limited (NSE:ALLCARGO) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 2.6% to ₹68.70 in the week after its latest annual results. It looks like a pretty bad result, all things considered. Although revenues of ₹133b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings fell badly short, missing estimates by 34% to hit ₹1.52 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Allcargo Logistics

After the latest results, the three analysts covering Allcargo Logistics are now predicting revenues of ₹141.7b in 2025. If met, this would reflect an okay 6.8% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to surge 38% to ₹2.10. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of ₹144.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of ₹2.20 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.

The consensus price target held steady at ₹88.67, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Allcargo Logistics at ₹105 per share, while the most bearish prices it at ₹80.00. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Allcargo Logistics is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Allcargo Logistics' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 6.8% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 19% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 12% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Allcargo Logistics is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Allcargo Logistics. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Allcargo Logistics' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Allcargo Logistics going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Allcargo Logistics (of which 1 is a bit concerning!) you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.