Ashiana Housing Limited's (NSE:ASHIANA) 40% Price Boost Is Out Of Tune With Earnings

Ashiana Housing Limited (NSE:ASHIANA) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great month, posting a 40% gain and recovering from prior weakness. The last month tops off a massive increase of 127% in the last year.

Following the firm bounce in price, given close to half the companies in India have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") below 31x, you may consider Ashiana Housing as a stock to avoid entirely with its 51.8x P/E ratio. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/E.

Recent times have been quite advantageous for Ashiana Housing as its earnings have been rising very briskly. The P/E is probably high because investors think this strong earnings growth will be enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

View our latest analysis for Ashiana Housing

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Ashiana Housing, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Is There Enough Growth For Ashiana Housing?

Ashiana Housing's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very strong growth, and importantly, perform much better than the market.

If we review the last year of earnings growth, the company posted a terrific increase of 173%. Still, EPS has barely risen at all from three years ago in total, which is not ideal. Accordingly, shareholders probably wouldn't have been overly satisfied with the unstable medium-term growth rates.

Comparing that to the market, which is predicted to deliver 24% growth in the next 12 months, the company's momentum is weaker based on recent medium-term annualised earnings results.

In light of this, it's alarming that Ashiana Housing's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited recent growth rates and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Final Word

Shares in Ashiana Housing have built up some good momentum lately, which has really inflated its P/E. Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-earnings ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.

We've established that Ashiana Housing currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its recent three-year growth is lower than the wider market forecast. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as this earnings performance isn't likely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

A lot of potential risks can sit within a company's balance sheet. Our free balance sheet analysis for Ashiana Housing with six simple checks will allow you to discover any risks that could be an issue.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking at a few good candidates. So take a peek at this free list of companies with a strong growth track record, trading on a low P/E.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.