Estimating The Fair Value Of Mangalam Drugs & Organics Limited (NSE:MANGALAM)

Key Insights

• Mangalam Drugs & Organics' estimated fair value is ₹132 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
• With ₹110 share price, Mangalam Drugs & Organics appears to be trading close to its estimated fair value
• The average premium for Mangalam Drugs & Organics' competitorsis currently 212%

In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of Mangalam Drugs & Organics Limited (NSE:MANGALAM) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex.

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.

View our latest analysis for Mangalam Drugs & Organics

The Calculation

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033
Levered FCF (₹, Millions)	₹133.5m	₹144.8m	₹156.4m	₹168.3m	₹180.7m	₹193.7m	₹207.4m	₹221.8m	₹237.2m	₹253.4m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Est @ 9.28%	Est @ 8.53%	Est @ 8.00%	Est @ 7.63%	Est @ 7.37%	Est @ 7.18%	Est @ 7.06%	Est @ 6.97%	Est @ 6.91%	Est @ 6.86%
Present Value (₹, Millions) Discounted @ 13%	₹118	₹113	₹107	₹102	₹96.3	₹91.0	₹85.9	₹81.0	₹76.3	₹71.9

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = ₹941m

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (6.8%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 13%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₃ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = ₹253m× (1 + 6.8%) ÷ (13%– 6.8%) = ₹4.1b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= ₹4.1b÷ ( 1 + 13%)¹⁰= ₹1.2b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is ₹2.1b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of ₹110, the company appears about fair value at a 17% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

Important Assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Mangalam Drugs & Organics as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 13%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.800. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Looking Ahead:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For Mangalam Drugs & Organics, there are three important factors you should further examine:

1. Risks: Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Mangalam Drugs & Organics , and understanding these should be part of your investment process.
2. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
3. Other Environmentally-Friendly Companies: Concerned about the environment and think consumers will buy eco-friendly products more and more? Browse through our interactive list of companies that are thinking about a greener future to discover some stocks you may not have thought of!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NSEI every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.