Earnings Miss: Here's What Concord Biotech Limited (NSE:CONCORDBIO) Analysts Are Forecasting For Next Year

It's shaping up to be a tough period for Concord Biotech Limited (NSE:CONCORDBIO), which a week ago released some disappointing quarterly results that could have a notable impact on how the market views the stock. Earnings fell badly short of analyst estimates, with ₹2.4b revenues missing by 16%, and statutory earnings per share (EPS) of ₹7.26 falling short of forecasts by some -18%. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Concord Biotech after the latest results.

View our latest analysis for Concord Biotech

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Concord Biotech from five analysts is for revenues of ₹14.5b in 2026. If met, it would imply a substantial 33% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to shoot up 43% to ₹44.59. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of ₹14.9b and earnings per share (EPS) of ₹46.74 in 2026. It's pretty clear that pessimism has reared its head after the latest results, leading to a weaker revenue outlook and a small dip in earnings per share estimates.

It'll come as no surprise then, to learn that the analysts have cut their price target 6.4% to ₹2,033. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Concord Biotech, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at ₹2,330 and the most bearish at ₹1,620 per share. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's clear from the latest estimates that Concord Biotech's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 26% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 15% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 11% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Concord Biotech is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Concord Biotech analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Concord Biotech .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.