Calculating The Fair Value Of Nuvoco Vistas Corporation Limited (NSE:NUVOCO)

Key Insights

• The projected fair value for Nuvoco Vistas is ₹293 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
• With ₹339 share price, Nuvoco Vistas appears to be trading close to its estimated fair value
• Our fair value estimate is 25% lower than Nuvoco Vistas' analyst price target of ₹389

How far off is Nuvoco Vistas Corporation Limited (NSE:NUVOCO) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we'll take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. This will be done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex.

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.

Check out our latest analysis for Nuvoco Vistas

Is Nuvoco Vistas Fairly Valued?

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033
Levered FCF (₹, Millions)	₹7.94b	₹10.3b	₹10.7b	₹11.2b	₹11.7b	₹12.4b	₹13.1b	₹14.0b	₹14.8b	₹15.8b
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x6	Analyst x8	Analyst x4	Est @ 4.36%	Est @ 5.08%	Est @ 5.59%	Est @ 5.94%	Est @ 6.18%	Est @ 6.36%	Est @ 6.48%
Present Value (₹, Millions) Discounted @ 15%	₹6.9k	₹7.8k	₹7.0k	₹6.3k	₹5.8k	₹5.3k	₹4.9k	₹4.5k	₹4.1k	₹3.8k

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = ₹56b

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 6.8%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 15%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₃ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = ₹16b× (1 + 6.8%) ÷ (15%– 6.8%) = ₹199b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= ₹199b÷ ( 1 + 15%)¹⁰= ₹48b

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is ₹105b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of ₹339, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

The Assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Nuvoco Vistas as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 15%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.017. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Nuvoco Vistas

Moving On:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For Nuvoco Vistas, there are three further items you should look at:

1. Risks: To that end, you should learn about the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Nuvoco Vistas (including 1 which is potentially serious) .
2. Future Earnings: How does NUVOCO's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Indian stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.