Kiri Industries Limited's (NSE:KIRIINDUS) 31% Price Boost Is Out Of Tune With Revenues

Kiri Industries Limited (NSE:KIRIINDUS) shareholders have had their patience rewarded with a 31% share price jump in the last month. Not all shareholders will be feeling jubilant, since the share price is still down a very disappointing 30% in the last twelve months.

Since its price has surged higher, given close to half the companies operating in India's Chemicals industry have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") below 1.5x, you may consider Kiri Industries as a stock to potentially avoid with its 2.1x P/S ratio. However, the P/S might be high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

See our latest analysis for Kiri Industries

What Does Kiri Industries' Recent Performance Look Like?

For instance, Kiri Industries' receding revenue in recent times would have to be some food for thought. It might be that many expect the company to still outplay most other companies over the coming period, which has kept the P/S from collapsing. If not, then existing shareholders may be quite nervous about the viability of the share price.

Want the full picture on earnings, revenue and cash flow for the company? Then our free report on Kiri Industries will help you shine a light on its historical performance.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The High P/S Ratio?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should outperform the industry for P/S ratios like Kiri Industries' to be considered reasonable.

In reviewing the last year of financials, we were disheartened to see the company's revenues fell to the tune of 35%. This means it has also seen a slide in revenue over the longer-term as revenue is down 1.5% in total over the last three years. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing revenue over that time.

Weighing that medium-term revenue trajectory against the broader industry's one-year forecast for expansion of 12% shows it's an unpleasant look.

In light of this, it's alarming that Kiri Industries' P/S sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Final Word

Kiri Industries shares have taken a big step in a northerly direction, but its P/S is elevated as a result. We'd say the price-to-sales ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

We've established that Kiri Industries currently trades on a much higher than expected P/S since its recent revenues have been in decline over the medium-term. With a revenue decline on investors' minds, the likelihood of a souring sentiment is quite high which could send the P/S back in line with what we'd expect. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, investors will have a hard time accepting the share price as fair value.

You need to take note of risks, for example - Kiri Industries has 2 warning signs (and 1 which is concerning) we think you should know about.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So if growing profitability aligns with your idea of a great company, take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.