Jocil Limited's (NSE:JOCIL) Popularity With Investors Is Under Threat From Overpricing

When close to half the companies in India have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") below 26x, you may consider Jocil Limited (NSE:JOCIL) as a stock to avoid entirely with its 63.4x P/E ratio. However, the P/E might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

We've discovered 4 warning signs about Jocil. View them for free.

For instance, Jocil's receding earnings in recent times would have to be some food for thought. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think the company will still do enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. If not, then existing shareholders may be quite nervous about the viability of the share price.

Check out our latest analysis for Jocil

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Jocil's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

How Is Jocil's Growth Trending?

Jocil's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very strong growth, and importantly, perform much better than the market.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 33% decrease to the company's bottom line. The last three years don't look nice either as the company has shrunk EPS by 78% in aggregate. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of earnings growth.

In contrast to the company, the rest of the market is expected to grow by 24% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term earnings decline into perspective.

With this information, we find it concerning that Jocil is trading at a P/E higher than the market. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Key Takeaway

While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.

We've established that Jocil currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its recent earnings have been in decline over the medium-term. When we see earnings heading backwards and underperforming the market forecasts, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

Don't forget that there may be other risks. For instance, we've identified 4 warning signs for Jocil (1 is significant) you should be aware of.

If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Jocil, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.