Jai Corp Limited's (NSE:JAICORPLTD) Share Price Not Quite Adding Up

Jai Corp Limited's (NSE:JAICORPLTD) price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 13.1x may look like a poor investment opportunity when you consider close to half the companies in the Packaging industry in India have P/S ratios below 1x. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/S.

See our latest analysis for Jai

What Does Jai's Recent Performance Look Like?

For instance, Jai's receding revenue in recent times would have to be some food for thought. One possibility is that the P/S is high because investors think the company will still do enough to outperform the broader industry in the near future. If not, then existing shareholders may be quite nervous about the viability of the share price.

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Jai's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The High P/S Ratio?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should far outperform the industry for P/S ratios like Jai's to be considered reasonable.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 9.9% decrease to the company's top line. As a result, revenue from three years ago have also fallen 13% overall. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of revenue growth.

Comparing that to the industry, which is predicted to deliver 15% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term revenue results is a sobering picture.

In light of this, it's alarming that Jai's P/S sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

The Final Word

It's argued the price-to-sales ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

We've established that Jai currently trades on a much higher than expected P/S since its recent revenues have been in decline over the medium-term. Right now we aren't comfortable with the high P/S as this revenue performance is highly unlikely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, investors will have a hard time accepting the share price as fair value.

A lot of potential risks can sit within a company's balance sheet. You can assess many of the main risks through our free balance sheet analysis for Jai with six simple checks.

If strong companies turning a profit tickle your fancy, then you'll want to check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.