We Think Shareholders Should Be Aware Of Some Factors Beyond ISMT's (NSE:ISMTLTD) Profit

Even though ISMT Limited (NSE:ISMTLTD) posted strong earnings recently, the stock hasn't reacted in a large way. We looked deeper into the numbers and found that shareholders might be concerned with some underlying weaknesses.

Check out our latest analysis for ISMT

A Closer Look At ISMT's Earnings

One key financial ratio used to measure how well a company converts its profit to free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio. To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.

As a result, a negative accrual ratio is a positive for the company, and a positive accrual ratio is a negative. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. To quote a 2014 paper by Lewellen and Resutek, "firms with higher accruals tend to be less profitable in the future".

Over the twelve months to March 2022, ISMT recorded an accrual ratio of 2.14. That means it didn't generate anywhere near enough free cash flow to match its profit. Statistically speaking, that's a real negative for future earnings. Indeed, in the last twelve months it reported free cash flow of ₹945m, which is significantly less than its profit of ₹23.7b. At this point we should mention that ISMT did manage to increase its free cash flow in the last twelve months Having said that, there is more to consider. We can look at how unusual items in the profit and loss statement impacted its accrual ratio, as well as explore how dilution is impacting shareholders negatively. The good news for shareholders is that ISMT's accrual ratio was much better last year, so this year's poor reading might simply be a case of a short term mismatch between profit and FCF. Shareholders should look for improved cashflow relative to profit in the current year, if that is indeed the case.

Note: we always recommend investors check balance sheet strength. Click here to be taken to our balance sheet analysis of ISMT.

To understand the value of a company's earnings growth, it is imperative to consider any dilution of shareholders' interests. ISMT expanded the number of shares on issue by 157% over the last year. That means its earnings are split among a greater number of shares. To celebrate net income while ignoring dilution is like rejoicing because you have a single slice of a larger pizza, but ignoring the fact that the pizza is now cut into many more slices. Check out ISMT's historical EPS growth by clicking on this link.

A Look At The Impact Of ISMT's Dilution on Its Earnings Per Share (EPS).

ISMT was losing money three years ago. And even focusing only on the last twelve months, we don't have a meaningful growth rate because it made a loss a year ago, too. But mathematics aside, it is always good to see when a formerly unprofitable business come good (though we accept profit would have been higher if dilution had not been required). And so, you can see quite clearly that dilution is having a rather significant impact on shareholders.

In the long term, if ISMT's earnings per share can increase, then the share price should too. However, if its profit increases while its earnings per share stay flat (or even fall) then shareholders might not see much benefit. For that reason, you could say that EPS is more important that net income in the long run, assuming the goal is to assess whether a company's share price might grow.

How Do Unusual Items Influence Profit?

Given the accrual ratio, it's not overly surprising that ISMT's profit was boosted by unusual items worth ₹25b in the last twelve months. While we like to see profit increases, we tend to be a little more cautious when unusual items have made a big contribution. When we analysed the vast majority of listed companies worldwide, we found that significant unusual items are often not repeated. And that's as you'd expect, given these boosts are described as 'unusual'. ISMT had a rather significant contribution from unusual items relative to its profit to March 2022. All else being equal, this would likely have the effect of making the statutory profit a poor guide to underlying earnings power.

Our Take On ISMT's Profit Performance

ISMT didn't back up its earnings with free cashflow, but this isn't too surprising given profits were inflated by unusual items. Meanwhile, the new shares issued mean that shareholders now own less of the company, unless they tipped in more cash themselves. On reflection, the above-mentioned factors give us the strong impression that ISMT'sunderlying earnings power is not as good as it might seem, based on the statutory profit numbers. With this in mind, we wouldn't consider investing in a stock unless we had a thorough understanding of the risks. For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs that you should run your eye over to get a better picture of ISMT.

In this article we've looked at a number of factors that can impair the utility of profit numbers, and we've come away cautious. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.