Should Weakness in Hindalco Industries Limited's (NSE:HINDALCO) Stock Be Seen As A Sign That Market Will Correct The Share Price Given Decent Financials?

It is hard to get excited after looking at Hindalco Industries' (NSE:HINDALCO) recent performance, when its stock has declined 11% over the past month. However, stock prices are usually driven by a company’s financials over the long term, which in this case look pretty respectable. Specifically, we decided to study Hindalco Industries' ROE in this article.

Return on equity or ROE is a key measure used to assess how efficiently a company's management is utilizing the company's capital. Put another way, it reveals the company's success at turning shareholder investments into profits.

We've found 21 US stocks that are forecast to pay a dividend yield of over 6% next year. See the full list for free.

How Is ROE Calculated?

ROE can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Hindalco Industries is:

12% = ₹139b ÷ ₹1.2t (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2024).

The 'return' is the yearly profit. So, this means that for every ₹1 of its shareholder's investments, the company generates a profit of ₹0.12.

See our latest analysis for Hindalco Industries

Why Is ROE Important For Earnings Growth?

So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Assuming everything else remains unchanged, the higher the ROE and profit retention, the higher the growth rate of a company compared to companies that don't necessarily bear these characteristics.

Hindalco Industries' Earnings Growth And 12% ROE

On the face of it, Hindalco Industries' ROE is not much to talk about. However, given that the company's ROE is similar to the average industry ROE of 11%, we may spare it some thought. Having said that, Hindalco Industries has shown a modest net income growth of 19% over the past five years. Considering the moderately low ROE, it is quite possible that there might be some other aspects that are positively influencing the company's earnings growth. Such as - high earnings retention or an efficient management in place.

We then compared Hindalco Industries' net income growth with the industry and found that the company's growth figure is lower than the average industry growth rate of 28% in the same 5-year period, which is a bit concerning.

The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. If you're wondering about Hindalco Industries''s valuation, check out this gauge of its price-to-earnings ratio, as compared to its industry.

Is Hindalco Industries Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?

In Hindalco Industries' case, its respectable earnings growth can probably be explained by its low three-year median payout ratio of 6.6% (or a retention ratio of 93%), which suggests that the company is investing most of its profits to grow its business.

Moreover, Hindalco Industries is determined to keep sharing its profits with shareholders which we infer from its long history of paying a dividend for at least ten years. Upon studying the latest analysts' consensus data, we found that the company is expected to keep paying out approximately 7.5% of its profits over the next three years. Therefore, the company's future ROE is also not expected to change by much with analysts predicting an ROE of 11%.

Summary

In total, it does look like Hindalco Industries has some positive aspects to its business. That is, a decent growth in earnings backed by a high rate of reinvestment. However, we do feel that that earnings growth could have been higher if the business were to improve on the low ROE rate. Especially given how the company is reinvesting a huge chunk of its profits. Having said that, the company's earnings growth is expected to slow down, as forecasted in the current analyst estimates. To know more about the company's future earnings growth forecasts take a look at this free report on analyst forecasts for the company to find out more.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.