Can Mixed Fundamentals Have A Negative Impact on Cosmo First Limited (NSE:COSMOFIRST) Current Share Price Momentum?

Cosmo First's (NSE:COSMOFIRST) stock is up by a considerable 14% over the past three months. But the company's key financial indicators appear to be differing across the board and that makes us question whether or not the company's current share price momentum can be maintained. Specifically, we decided to study Cosmo First's ROE in this article.

Return on equity or ROE is a key measure used to assess how efficiently a company's management is utilizing the company's capital. Put another way, it reveals the company's success at turning shareholder investments into profits.

View our latest analysis for Cosmo First

How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?

The formula for ROE is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Cosmo First is:

7.2% = ₹1.0b ÷ ₹14b (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2024).

The 'return' is the amount earned after tax over the last twelve months. Another way to think of that is that for every ₹1 worth of equity, the company was able to earn ₹0.07 in profit.

What Is The Relationship Between ROE And Earnings Growth?

We have already established that ROE serves as an efficient profit-generating gauge for a company's future earnings. Based on how much of its profits the company chooses to reinvest or "retain", we are then able to evaluate a company's future ability to generate profits. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don’t share these attributes.

Cosmo First's Earnings Growth And 7.2% ROE

It is hard to argue that Cosmo First's ROE is much good in and of itself. Not just that, even compared to the industry average of 9.5%, the company's ROE is entirely unremarkable. Given the circumstances, the significant decline in net income by 2.9% seen by Cosmo First over the last five years is not surprising. However, there could also be other factors causing the earnings to decline. For example, the business has allocated capital poorly, or that the company has a very high payout ratio.

That being said, we compared Cosmo First's performance with the industry and were concerned when we found that while the company has shrunk its earnings, the industry has grown its earnings at a rate of 17% in the same 5-year period.

Earnings growth is an important metric to consider when valuing a stock. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. If you're wondering about Cosmo First's's valuation, check out this gauge of its price-to-earnings ratio, as compared to its industry.

Is Cosmo First Making Efficient Use Of Its Profits?

Cosmo First's low three-year median payout ratio of 13% (or a retention ratio of 87%) over the last three years should mean that the company is retaining most of its earnings to fuel its growth but the company's earnings have actually shrunk. This typically shouldn't be the case when a company is retaining most of its earnings. It looks like there might be some other reasons to explain the lack in that respect. For example, the business could be in decline.

Moreover, Cosmo First has been paying dividends for at least ten years or more suggesting that management must have perceived that the shareholders prefer dividends over earnings growth.

Conclusion

On the whole, we feel that the performance shown by Cosmo First can be open to many interpretations. While the company does have a high rate of profit retention, its low rate of return is probably hampering its earnings growth. Wrapping up, we would proceed with caution with this company and one way of doing that would be to look at the risk profile of the business. You can see the 6 risks we have identified for Cosmo First by visiting our risks dashboard for free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.