Chambal Fertilisers and Chemicals Limited (NSE:CHAMBLFERT) Shares Could Be 37% Below Their Intrinsic Value Estimate

In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of Chambal Fertilisers and Chemicals Limited (NSE:CHAMBLFERT) by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!

Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Check out our latest analysis for Chambal Fertilisers and Chemicals

What's The Estimated Valuation?

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032
Levered FCF (₹, Millions)	₹18.4b	₹11.5b	₹14.2b	₹16.4b	₹18.5b	₹20.5b	₹22.5b	₹24.5b	₹26.5b	₹28.6b
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x1	Analyst x1	Analyst x1	Est @ 15.43%	Est @ 12.82%	Est @ 11%	Est @ 9.73%	Est @ 8.83%	Est @ 8.21%	Est @ 7.77%
Present Value (₹, Millions) Discounted @ 14%	₹16.2k	₹8.9k	₹9.7k	₹9.8k	₹9.8k	₹9.5k	₹9.2k	₹8.8k	₹8.4k	₹8.0k

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = ₹98b

After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 6.8%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 14%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₂ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = ₹29b× (1 + 6.8%) ÷ (14%– 6.8%) = ₹444b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= ₹444b÷ ( 1 + 14%)¹⁰= ₹124b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is ₹222b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of ₹336, the company appears quite good value at a 37% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

Important Assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Chambal Fertilisers and Chemicals as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 14%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.072. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Moving On:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. Why is the intrinsic value higher than the current share price? For Chambal Fertilisers and Chemicals, we've compiled three essential factors you should explore:

1. Risks: As an example, we've found 2 warning signs for Chambal Fertilisers and Chemicals (1 is a bit unpleasant!) that you need to consider before investing here.
2. Future Earnings: How does CHAMBLFERT's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Indian stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.