Unpleasant Surprises Could Be In Store For Berger Paints India Limited's (NSE:BERGEPAINT) Shares

With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 57.9x Berger Paints India Limited (NSE:BERGEPAINT) may be sending very bearish signals at the moment, given that almost half of all companies in India have P/E ratios under 31x and even P/E's lower than 17x are not unusual. However, the P/E might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

With earnings growth that's superior to most other companies of late, Berger Paints India has been doing relatively well. It seems that many are expecting the strong earnings performance to persist, which has raised the P/E. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

View our latest analysis for Berger Paints India

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Does Growth Match The High P/E?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as steep as Berger Paints India's is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the market decidedly.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered an exceptional 27% gain to the company's bottom line. The strong recent performance means it was also able to grow EPS by 85% in total over the last three years. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been superb for the company.

Shifting to the future, estimates from the analysts covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 12% per year over the next three years. With the market predicted to deliver 20% growth per annum, the company is positioned for a weaker earnings result.

In light of this, it's alarming that Berger Paints India's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects, but the analyst cohort is not so confident this will happen. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as this level of earnings growth is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Final Word

We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

Our examination of Berger Paints India's analyst forecasts revealed that its inferior earnings outlook isn't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted. When we see a weak earnings outlook with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. Unless these conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

A lot of potential risks can sit within a company's balance sheet. Our free balance sheet analysis for Berger Paints India with six simple checks will allow you to discover any risks that could be an issue.

If P/E ratios interest you, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.