Is Agro Phos (India) (NSE:AGROPHOS) A Risky Investment?

David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the permanent loss of capital.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. As with many other companies Agro Phos (India) Limited (NSE:AGROPHOS) makes use of debt. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?

Why Does Debt Bring Risk?

Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.

See our latest analysis for Agro Phos (India)

What Is Agro Phos (India)'s Net Debt?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at September 2020 Agro Phos (India) had debt of ₹192.9m, up from ₹172.8m in one year. However, because it has a cash reserve of ₹13.7m, its net debt is less, at about ₹179.2m.

A Look At Agro Phos (India)'s Liabilities

The latest balance sheet data shows that Agro Phos (India) had liabilities of ₹378.9m due within a year, and liabilities of ₹53.2m falling due after that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of ₹13.7m as well as receivables valued at ₹382.5m due within 12 months. So its liabilities total ₹36.0m more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

Given Agro Phos (India) has a market capitalization of ₹285.9m, it's hard to believe these liabilities pose much threat. Having said that, it's clear that we should continue to monitor its balance sheet, lest it change for the worse.

In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).

Agro Phos (India)'s net debt is sitting at a very reasonable 2.2 times its EBITDA, while its EBIT covered its interest expense just 3.8 times last year. While these numbers do not alarm us, it's worth noting that the cost of the company's debt is having a real impact. Importantly, Agro Phos (India) grew its EBIT by 48% over the last twelve months, and that growth will make it easier to handle its debt. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is Agro Phos (India)'s earnings that will influence how the balance sheet holds up in the future. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.

Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. In the last three years, Agro Phos (India) basically broke even on a free cash flow basis. Some might say that's a concern, when it comes considering how easily it would be for it to down debt.

Our View

When it comes to the balance sheet, the standout positive for Agro Phos (India) was the fact that it seems able to grow its EBIT confidently. But the other factors we noted above weren't so encouraging. In particular, conversion of EBIT to free cash flow gives us cold feet. When we consider all the elements mentioned above, it seems to us that Agro Phos (India) is managing its debt quite well. Having said that, the load is sufficiently heavy that we would recommend any shareholders keep a close eye on it. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For example Agro Phos (India) has 3 warning signs (and 2 which make us uncomfortable) we think you should know about.

At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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