HDFC Life Insurance (NSE:HDFCLIFE) shareholders have earned a 11% CAGR over the last three years
Low-cost index funds make it easy to achieve average market returns. But in any diversified portfolio of stocks, you'll see some that fall short of the average. That's what has happened with the HDFC Life Insurance Company Limited (NSE:HDFCLIFE) share price. It's up 36% over three years, but that is below the market return. At least the stock price is up over the last year, albeit only by 1.1%.
Let's take a look at the underlying fundamentals over the longer term, and see if they've been consistent with shareholders returns.
To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
During three years of share price growth, HDFC Life Insurance achieved compound earnings per share growth of 8.7% per year. We don't think it is entirely coincidental that the EPS growth is reasonably close to the 11% average annual increase in the share price. This suggests that sentiment and expectations have not changed drastically. Quite to the contrary, the share price has arguably reflected the EPS growth.
The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
We know that HDFC Life Insurance has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? If you're interested, you could check this free report showing consensus revenue forecasts.
A Different Perspective
HDFC Life Insurance shareholders gained a total return of 1.4% during the year. But that was short of the market average. It's probably a good sign that the company has an even better long term track record, having provided shareholders with an annual TSR of 5% over five years. It's quite possible the business continues to execute with prowess, even as the share price gains are slowing. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Even so, be aware that HDFC Life Insurance is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...
If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Indian exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About NSEI:HDFCLIFE
HDFC Life Insurance
Provides individual and group insurance solutions in India.
Solid track record with adequate balance sheet.
Market Insights
Weekly Picks
Early mover in a fast growing industry. Likely to experience share price volatility as they scale

A case for CA$31.80 (undiluted), aka 8,616% upside from CA$0.37 (an 86 bagger!).

Moderation and Stabilisation: HOLD: Fair Price based on a 4-year Cycle is $12.08
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