United Spirits Limited's (NSE:MCDOWELL-N) Business Is Yet to Catch Up With Its Share Price

United Spirits Limited's (NSE:MCDOWELL-N) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 67.5x might make it look like a strong sell right now compared to the market in India, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 29x and even P/E's below 16x are quite common. However, the P/E might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

United Spirits could be doing better as its earnings have been going backwards lately while most other companies have been seeing positive earnings growth. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think this poor earnings performance will turn the corner. If not, then existing shareholders may be extremely nervous about the viability of the share price.

View our latest analysis for United Spirits

Want the full picture on analyst estimates for the company? Then our free report on United Spirits will help you uncover what's on the horizon.

Does Growth Match The High P/E?

United Spirits' P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very strong growth, and importantly, perform much better than the market.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 13% decrease to the company's bottom line. Still, the latest three year period has seen an excellent 523% overall rise in EPS, in spite of its unsatisfying short-term performance. Although it's been a bumpy ride, it's still fair to say the earnings growth recently has been more than adequate for the company.

Looking ahead now, EPS is anticipated to climb by 16% per year during the coming three years according to the ten analysts following the company. With the market predicted to deliver 19% growth per annum, the company is positioned for a weaker earnings result.

In light of this, it's alarming that United Spirits' P/E sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as this level of earnings growth is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Key Takeaway

Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-earnings ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.

Our examination of United Spirits' analyst forecasts revealed that its inferior earnings outlook isn't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as the predicted future earnings aren't likely to support such positive sentiment for long. This places shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with United Spirits, and understanding should be part of your investment process.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.