Declining Stock and Decent Financials: Is The Market Wrong About Adani Wilmar Limited (NSE:AWL)?

With its stock down 22% over the past three months, it is easy to disregard Adani Wilmar (NSE:AWL). But if you pay close attention, you might find that its key financial indicators look quite decent, which could mean that the stock could potentially rise in the long-term given how markets usually reward more resilient long-term fundamentals. Specifically, we decided to study Adani Wilmar's ROE in this article.

ROE or return on equity is a useful tool to assess how effectively a company can generate returns on the investment it received from its shareholders. In short, ROE shows the profit each dollar generates with respect to its shareholder investments.

See our latest analysis for Adani Wilmar

How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?

The formula for return on equity is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Adani Wilmar is:

13% = ₹12b ÷ ₹89b (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2024).

The 'return' is the income the business earned over the last year. Another way to think of that is that for every ₹1 worth of equity, the company was able to earn ₹0.13 in profit.

Why Is ROE Important For Earnings Growth?

We have already established that ROE serves as an efficient profit-generating gauge for a company's future earnings. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don’t share these attributes.

A Side By Side comparison of Adani Wilmar's Earnings Growth And 13% ROE

When you first look at it, Adani Wilmar's ROE doesn't look that attractive. However, the fact that the its ROE is quite higher to the industry average of 10% doesn't go unnoticed by us. But seeing Adani Wilmar's five year net income decline of 3.8% over the past five years, we might rethink that. Remember, the company's ROE is a bit low to begin with, just that it is higher than the industry average. So that could be one of the factors that are causing earnings growth to shrink.

So, as a next step, we compared Adani Wilmar's performance against the industry and were disappointed to discover that while the company has been shrinking its earnings, the industry has been growing its earnings at a rate of 16% over the last few years.

Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. It’s important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company's expected earnings growth (or decline). This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. If you're wondering about Adani Wilmar's's valuation, check out this gauge of its price-to-earnings ratio, as compared to its industry.

Is Adani Wilmar Efficiently Re-investing Its Profits?

Adani Wilmar doesn't pay any regular dividends, meaning that potentially all of its profits are being reinvested in the business, which doesn't explain why the company's earnings have shrunk if it is retaining all of its profits. It looks like there might be some other reasons to explain the lack in that respect. For example, the business could be in decline.

Summary

In total, it does look like Adani Wilmar has some positive aspects to its business. However, while the company does have a decent ROE and a high profit retention, its earnings growth number is quite disappointing. This suggests that there might be some external threat to the business, that's hampering growth. That being so, the latest industry analyst forecasts show that the analysts are expecting to see a huge improvement in the company's earnings growth rate. To know more about the company's future earnings growth forecasts take a look at this free report on analyst forecasts for the company to find out more.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.