Adani Wilmar Limited Just Beat Revenue By 8.2%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

It's been a good week for Adani Wilmar Limited (NSE:AWL) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest first-quarter results, and the shares gained 2.4% to ₹675. It was a workmanlike result, with revenues of ₹147b coming in 8.2% ahead of expectations, and statutory earnings per share of ₹6.89, in line with analyst appraisals. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Adani Wilmar after the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for Adani Wilmar

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Adani Wilmar's four analysts is for revenues of ₹614.8b in 2023, which would reflect a modest 6.7% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to jump 39% to ₹8.80. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of ₹612.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of ₹8.75 in 2023. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of ₹603, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Adani Wilmar analyst has a price target of ₹743 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at ₹420. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that Adani Wilmar's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 9.0% annualised growth rate until the end of 2023 being well below the historical 43% growth over the last year. Compare this to the 205 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 9.1% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Adani Wilmar's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at ₹603, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Adani Wilmar analysts - going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We also provide an overview of the Adani Wilmar Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.