Indian Oil Corporation Limited Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

Indian Oil Corporation Limited (NSE:IOC) came out with its third-quarter results last week, and we wanted to see how the business is performing and what industry forecasters think of the company following this report. Results overall were not great, with earnings of ₹1.54 per share falling drastically short of analyst expectations. Meanwhile revenues hit ₹1.9t and were slightly better than forecasts. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Indian Oil

Following last week's earnings report, Indian Oil's 16 analysts are forecasting 2026 revenues to be ₹7.48t, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to jump 98% to ₹15.27. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of ₹7.40t and earnings per share (EPS) of ₹17.03 in 2026. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a real cut to EPS estimates.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target fell 9.7% to ₹149, with the analysts clearly linking lower forecast earnings to the performance of the stock price. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Indian Oil analyst has a price target of ₹205 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at ₹90.00. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 1.4% by the end of 2026. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 16% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 9.2% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Indian Oil is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Indian Oil's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Indian Oil going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with Indian Oil (at least 2 which are potentially serious) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.