Earnings Miss: Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited Missed EPS By 62% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

Shareholders of Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (NSE:HINDPETRO) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 11% to ₹392 following its latest first-quarter results. Results were mixed, with revenues of ₹1.1t exceeding expectations, even as statutory earnings per share (EPS) fell badly short. Earnings were ₹2.98 per share, -62% short of analyst expectations. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

View our latest analysis for Hindustan Petroleum

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the 19 analysts covering Hindustan Petroleum, is for revenues of ₹4.08t in 2025. This implies a small 6.0% reduction in Hindustan Petroleum's revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to fall 19% to ₹37.46 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of ₹4.41t and earnings per share (EPS) of ₹47.31 in 2025. The analysts seem less optimistic after the recent results, reducing their revenue forecasts and making a pretty serious reduction to earnings per share numbers.

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the ₹354 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Hindustan Petroleum analyst has a price target of ₹474 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at ₹190. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 7.9% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 14% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 5.1% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Hindustan Petroleum's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Hindustan Petroleum. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at ₹354, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Hindustan Petroleum analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 2 warning signs for Hindustan Petroleum that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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